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If Britain breaks the Brexit treaty, this could mean that Ireland has to protect the EU’s internal market with border controls. Irish EU expert Daniel Keohane explains the consequences of such an escalation and why it would plunge Dublin into a dilemma.
A hiking trail runs along the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The Irish internal border is the stumbling block in the Brexit negotiations between London and Brussels
With a market law, Britain wants to create the possibility of repealing parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Brexit agreement concluded in 2019. What reactions did that provoke in Ireland?
Dublin’s reactions were extremely harsh. It was precisely the aim of the EU and Britain to find a weatherproof solution in the Brexit Treaty to avoid a regulatory and customs border on the Irish island in any case, regardless of whether it was a soft or hard Brexit. That is why London was committed to controlling the Irish Sea between the British Isles and Northern Ireland. It took decades to negotiate the Good Friday Agreement to end the Northern Ireland conflict, and breaking the Withdrawal Treaty would destroy the fragile trust.
The Market Act only affects declarations of exports from Northern Ireland to Great Britain and state aid to the British Isles. Isn’t the Irish fear exaggerated?
From a purely technical point of view, these two elements would probably not immediately lead to a strict limit. However, we do not know how far the UK government would go with the infringement or what the outstanding UK financial bill will say. Now the EU fears that London may not impose tariffs on goods arriving from the British Isles to Northern Ireland. In general, a breach of contract would not only lead to a legal battle between Brussels and London. Rather, the question arises of how the EU could protect its domestic market and enforce its external tariff. If the UK does not guarantee this, Ireland will have to.
What would Dublin do if the Brexit transition period expires on January 1, 2021?
No one really knows, as the Irish government keeps a low profile for political reasons. It states that it does not want to establish a regulatory and customs border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It’s not just about the peace process, the cross-border economy is also based on common EU rules. The temptation for Dublin would be great to do nothing at first and hope that the new negotiations between London and Brussels will clarify the situation in a few months. However, if food and industrial products that are not approved in the EU turn out to be smuggled into the internal market, the EU will pressure Ireland to carry out controls. If London ignores the exit agreement, Dublin will have to choose between a “West Brexit” and a hard border with Northern Ireland.
What does that mean exactly?
It would be easier to locate the controls not at the border with Northern Ireland, but at the ports where the goods leave Ireland for the rest of the EU. But that would actually lead to a “West Brexit”. Ireland would lose its free access to the internal market and would cease to be a full member of the EU. Dublin will not be able to accept that. This brings us back to the controls at the land border with Northern Ireland. It has almost 300 crossings, that is, more than the entire eastern border of the EU, and therefore cannot be controlled across the board. During the Northern Ireland conflict, most of these small streets were closed and the British government only controlled about 30 crossings.
Could the Dublin government even politically afford to block border crossings?
There are still violent factions of the IRA, it remains to be seen if these border posts established by Ireland would attack. But there would certainly be great tensions, because the last thing people want in the border region is blocked crossings and new obstacles. Of course, the government could argue that Britain has broken its word, a narrative that many Irish find fertile ground for historical reasons alone. However, it would be up to the EU and the Irish government to implement these extremely unpopular measures. It would be a big mess for Dublin. Ireland had nothing to say about Brexit, but now it has to deal with the consequences.
Therefore, Dublin and Brussels are in a weaker negotiating position.
This is only half the truth. Because, aside from the economic consequences, Britain would also do itself enormous political harm if it simply passed a treaty of international law. It will be clear to everyone who is to blame, as the London government has already admitted the violation of international law. This reinforces the position of the EU and Ireland.
Does Ireland expect Joe Biden to win the election? Biden and House Democratic Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi have threatened to block a free trade deal with London if Brexit puts the Good Friday Agreement at risk.
There is a lot of support for the Good Friday Agreement from both Democrats and Republicans in the United States. Donald Trump’s envoy in Northern Ireland has made the same statement as Pelosi. If London breaks the exit agreement and forces Dublin to carry out border controls, Washington will side with Ireland.
How do you rate the chances that a withdrawal agreement breach can be avoided?
I have reasonable confidence if a trade deal is reached between the EU and the UK. The EU has now launched infringement proceedings against London, but has not interrupted free trade talks. And recently there have been positive signs. The EU and Ireland will only sign a trade deal if London removes the controversial market law passages. But even from the British point of view, it would not make sense to sabotage duty-free access to the EU market with legal disputes and breach of trust.
Irish security and European policy expert Daniel Keohane is Senior Research Fellow at Dublin City University and Associate at the London Think-Tank Center for European Reform.
