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The balance of power in Washington by no means depends solely on the White House. Who is in charge of the Capitol often has the upper hand, and it may not be known which party it will be until next year.
View of the Washington Capitol at sunrise.
If it were really just about the money, as is often claimed, the matter would have been clear for a long time: After November 3, Democrats would bring Congress under their control. In seven states where they have a real chance of winning a Senate seat, they have money like hay. And that means something. The ten most expensive campaigns to date for the small House of Congress cost between $ 127 million (New Hampshire) and $ 242 million (North Carolina), according to an advertising analyst, with seven of them taking place this fall.
Money speaks for the Democrats
Even in the case of the greatest uncertainty, one thing is clear from the numbers: Democrats spend considerably more money on election advertising than their Republican rivals, more than triple in Iowa and more than double in four other states.
The advantage with Rachel and Ben https://t.co/8g9OBcWxbp via @Youtube # PresidentialElection2020 Expense Review September 2020@Ad_Analytics
– John Link (@JohnLink_AdMo) October 7, 2020
The trend is in line with that of the presidential elections, for which Democratic candidate Joe Biden and the party raised $ 383 million in September, about $ 135 million more than current Donald Trump and the Great Old Party (GOP).
But because voters also play a role, the question of who will have the majority in the US Congress in the new year remains an exciting one. It will decide whether inter-party compromises should be made in Washington or whether one party will have all power in its hands for at least two years. The last time Republicans had this luxury was after the 2016 election. They had used it for their highly controversial tax cut.
A record number of disputed districts
Direct representation of the people in the United States Congress, the House of Representatives, is fully renewed every two years. It is unusual that this year in 415 out of 435 constituencies (more than 95 percent) both parties are sending candidates to the race. That is the highest rate in at least a hundred years.
It’s primarily Democrats who attack Republican seats much more frequently today. In the past, each left dozens of constituencies for the Republican Party without a fight. From the point of view of opinion pollsters, they have a good chance of maintaining or expanding their existing majority, currently 232 to 197 seats.
More exciting is the representation of the member states, the Senate, which is renewed every six years, every two years by a third. In addition to the 33 rotating seats, this year there will be alternate elections in Georgia and Arizona. Statistically, Democrats have an advantage in this election because they currently only have 12 of the 35 seats available for election, compared to 23 for Republicans.
Because of this particular constellation, it was clear that Democrats would spend a lot of effort and money to “split” the current Republican majority into three seats. If they also conquered the White House, three seats would suffice, because in the event of a tie in the Senate, the vice president as president of the small chamber has a casting vote, in this case it would be vice president Kamala Harris.
If Trump were re-elected, the Democratic Party would have to win four seats to set the tone in the Senate. It can then completely paralyze the president’s work in essential areas for at least two years, most notably in the appointment of justices, which played a particularly important role in Trump’s first term.
Justice Amy Coney Barrett during the Senate hearing to confirm it before the Supreme Court.
If, on the other hand, Biden wins the presidential election and Republicans have a majority in the Senate, a compromise would have to be found for each new appointment. Or the Republicans would fundamentally go against it, as they had often done in the last years of the Obama administration.
No chance in Alabama
Before they can celebrate any victory, the Democrats will almost certainly have to endure a defeat. Doug Jones in Alabama is in an almost hopeless position. His election in 2017 was a car-accident by the Republicans: They had chosen controversial Judge Roy Moore as a candidate in the primaries and received the receipt for it. Without the specter of his candidacy in the background, the seat will almost certainly return to the Republican Party.
To be sure, Democrats would have to win at least four, or even better five, seats for the Senate majority. That is a difficult task under normal circumstances. But it is not insoluble if the high motivation of their voters continues, which was manifested in the 2018 by-elections. In the best of cases, they could win eight seats: in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Montana, Carolina del North and South Carolina.
The race for a majority in the Senate will be closed
Colorado and Arizona practically safe
The easiest thing for Democrats to do is a seat in Colorado, where incumbent Cory Gardner will be virtually certain to succumb to popular former Gov. John Hickenlooper. Gardner finds himself in a dilemma that makes life difficult for other Republican candidates as well: He doesn’t want to identify too much with President Trump, who is in a difficult position in Colorado. But he cannot afford to publicly distance himself from him, because then the hard core of Trump’s supporters will flee from him and his chances of success will continue to decline.
Republican Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado during a debate with his challenger, former Gov. John Hickenlooper.
A Democratic success from Arizona is also within our grasp. Martha McSally had lost there before, but the governor sent her to Washington after John McCain’s death. She is far behind in the race against former astronaut Mark Kelly. Kelly is the husband of former Congresswoman Gabrielle Gifford, who barely survived a murderous attack in 2011 and has been severely disabled ever since. Both have since committed to stricter gun laws.
Unusual fear
Also, this year even unaccustomed Republican senators have to fear for their seat. One of them is Lindsey Graham, who went from being a sharp critic to a close Trump ally and is having a harder time than expected in South Carolina against Black Democrat Jaime Harrison. If Harrison were to win by surprise, both senators from a single state would be black for the first time in American history.
Joni Ernst of Iowa, who moved in as a farmer’s daughter six years ago to “make the pigs screech” in depraved Washington, is one of those nervous.
Now he’s in the race against another farmer’s daughter, Theresa Greenfield, relatively behind.
In North Carolina, Thom Tillis tries to stay afloat against newcomer Cal Cunningham. Recently, he was helped by a Cunningham extramarital affair scandal. Whether this will suffice remains to be seen. In Georgia, if things go well enough, Democrats could even fill both Senate seats. In the regular race, Republican incumbent David Perdue shows a surprising amount of effort against challenger Jon Ossoff.
The alternate election, which is held at the same time, creates a curiosity: 20 candidates run, and if none reaches an absolute majority, the two best placed have to go to the second round. This could ensure that the outsider, black Democratic pastor Raphael Warnock, can benefit from the false pool of Republican voters because two prominent Republicans are fighting for the seat. In any case, it could be that the runoff in Georgia will decide on the majority in the Senate on January 5, 2021.
NZZ Live Event: Post-US Election – The Analysis
After the November 3 elections, US correspondent Marie-Astrid Langer and foreign editor Meret Baumann will resolve the situation and answer your questions. What factors have led to this result? What will happen after the US elections?
Wednesday, November 11, 2020, 7 pm, online event
Tickets and more information can be found here.
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