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The crown’s federal task force first warned on Oct. 23 that there could be no free intensive care beds across the country by the end of the month. Then there was talk of the end of this week. Swiss hospital doctors would no longer be able to treat all corona patients. A horror scene!
It hasn’t gotten that far to this day. Intensive care beds are increasingly rare. In particular, hospitals in western Switzerland have already had to transfer patients. But the situation still seems to be more or less under control. Task Force Chairman Martin Ackermann corrected himself again on Friday. Hospitals should now be full next week if the number of cases cannot be significantly reduced.
The number of cases no longer increases at the same rate.
Meanwhile, doubts have arisen. Are all the black painters sitting on the federal crown task force? Scientists must listen to accusations of excessive scaremongering. Working group member Sebastian Bonhoeffer now defends himself against the “Sunday newspaper”: “The October 23 forecast was based on the assumption that non-emergency interventions will not be postponed,” says the theoretical biology professor. from ETH Zurich.
At the same time, the doubling time for diseases has been reduced from 7 to 8.6 days. This means that the time when hospitals are running out has been delayed for a few days.
The problem is far from resolved
Bonhoeffer also states on behalf of the task force that with his warnings he has contributed to the fact that the situation has eased somewhat. Bonhoeffer: «If this is the case, it would be due to the introduction of the measures and a much changed behavior of the population. This would be a great success, to which the scientific working group would have made some contribution. “
However, the problem of hospitals is not solved in any way. Because as long as growth remains exponential, the slowdown will only save a little time: “If you add 100 or 200 beds to bed capacity, it will only take a few more days before hospitals return to their limits.” The problem will only be solved if the number of cases can be drastically reduced. (dba)
