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To slow the spread of the virus, the Federal Council is now also examining two-week mini-closures. What are the advantages and disadvantages of these circuit breakers?
An empty sports ground in Yverdon-les-Bains during closure in April. A temporary lockdown would probably be the last measure if the situation in Switzerland spiraled out of control.
The second wave of the corona epidemic hits Switzerland with full force. In just one week, reported Sars-CoV-2 infections have doubled. But how should the explosive spread of the virus be slowed? As Stefan Kuster from the Federal Office of Public Health explained on Tuesday, the Federal Council is now examining a two- to three-week mini-lockdown as one of four scenarios. The Covid-19 scientific working group has also discussed this type of switch these days.
What is meant by a circuit breaker?
Circuit breaker means “circuit breaker”. If it dies, practically the entire population is sent to a two-week quarantine. Contacts with the outside world would be kept to a minimum, restaurants, bars, clubs, and leisure and cultural facilities would be closed, and people would be sent to headquarters. It is also conceivable that a general curfew is imposed.
What is your experience abroad with such a small blockage?
According to Stefan Kuster, no other country has yet tested a circuit breaker. However, a comparable temporary lockdown was imposed on individual regions of Europe. In the Berchtesgaden district of Upper Bavaria, for example, there has been a strict curfew from last Tuesday until November 2. At the same time, schools, kindergartens and all restaurants, bars, cinemas and theaters were closed. The population of Berchtesgadener Land can only leave the apartment “if there are valid reasons”. At the same time, it is mandatory to wear a mask in crowded places and streets, and it is forbidden to visit clinics, homes for the elderly and the elderly.
Next Friday, Wales will also introduce a two-week lockdown. This establishes that only open commodity stores, pubs and restaurants remain closed. It is strictly forbidden to meet people from different households during this time. The population can only leave their own apartment when it is not possible to have a home office or because they have to see a doctor. The measure is already in use in Northern Ireland.
What do epidemiologists expect from a circuit breaker lockout?
From a scientific point of view, such an intervention can be useful if the health system is overloaded and there are no longer enough beds in intensive care units. This is because this could interrupt the transmission chains. Scientists assume that the rapid increase in the number of cases in Switzerland (5,596 cases were reported on Wednesday) could be stopped in this way. However, it is questionable whether a two- or three-week blockade is enough to keep the number of cases low. If this does not happen, there is a risk that the circuit breaker will have to be extended, and this will have serious consequences for economic and social life. Especially since the experiences of spring show that the opening becomes more difficult the longer the closing lasts.
What would be the economic consequences of such a mini-confinement?
With the time limit, it is hoped to keep social and economic costs under control. However, trade representatives urgently warn against such intervention. “If the Federal Council proceeds with a mallet, the economic consequences will be devastating,” says Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at the Economiesuisse business association. Differentiated measures and good protection concepts are required to contain the spread of the virus. The worst of all is that a confinement would come unprepared. The company’s warehouses are full, delivery contracts have been signed and construction deadlines have been set. “That’s why a lockdown can’t be compared to a long-planned business vacation break.”
According to Minsch, the consequences for the labor market would also be serious. Even without additional drastic measures, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to four percent next year. “If there were another lockdown, the unemployment figures would rise much faster because many companies would not survive this.” At the same time, companies would also activate restricted restructuring programs, with the result that many layoffs would have to be expected.
How likely is the Federal Council to adopt this brutal measure?
A temporary lockdown would probably be the last measure if the situation in Switzerland spiraled out of control. The Federal Council will decide on a circuit breaker in one week at the earliest. Only if the number of cases continues to rise at the same rate, and hospitals are also reaching their limits, should you take this drastic measure.
