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It’s not dramatic yet, but hospitalizations have recently increased in Switzerland. Image: keystone
Not only is the number of cases increasing in Switzerland, this is why it is becoming less comfortable again
Last week we analyzed eight points to see how the crisis of the crown in Switzerland is developing. It basically seemed stable. Seven days later, unfortunately some trends are pointing to the upside.
Number of cases, volume of tests, positivity rate, hospitalizations, deaths: there are some statistics that together give a picture of the corona crisis. Stefan Kuster, Head of the Department of Communicable Diseases at FOPH, said at the press conference a week ago: “The situation is stable, but fragile.” That still applies today. However, hospitalizations and the age structure do not show good trends. We analyze eight points about the coronavirus in Switzerland.
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Case numbers
After the peak in March / April, Switzerland reduced the number of cases to the low double-digit range. However, they have been increasing continuously since the end of June. We currently have around 500 boxes a day, and the trend continues to increase.
An interesting side effect: on what day of the week are the most cases reported? Or to put it another way: generally Monday is the day with the fewest new cases, Tuesday the day with the second fewest. Overall, however, the reports also increased these days. And since Wednesday, September 2, each day of the week has set a new record since the summer.
How many cases of corona are reported on what day of the week
Development since June 15, 2020. image: watson
Situation in the cantons
As of September 17, four cantons currently have more than 60 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, the canton of Zurich is now just below 59. These are:
- Waadt: 222 cases per 100,000 in the last 14 days (last week: 159)
- Geneva: 141 cases (previous week: 130)
- Freiburg: 134 cases (previous week: 123)
- Neuenburg: 66 cases (previous week: 49)
You can see the overview of all cantons here:
Cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days
Data as of September 17. which: BAG
In some cantons, contact trackers are barely keeping up:
Positivitätsrate
However, the number of cases alone does not give an idea of the current situation. Several factors play a role. For example, the number of tests and the positivity rate.
The number of tests also varies depending on the day of the week. During the weekend, significantly fewer people can generally be tested. In general, the number has increased again since the end of August.
The positivity rate, on the other hand, has fallen from around 4 percent to around 3 percent since the end of August, but rose again in the last week and stood again at 3.9 percent on September 17. Therefore, the increased number of cases in recent days is no longer solely due to the increase in the number of tests.
Positivity rate (average of the last 7 days)
Hospitalization
One of the biggest issues in recent weeks has been hospitalizations. Although the number of cases is constantly increasing, hospitalizations remained relatively constant until last week, which is also the goal of the FOPH.
However, on average over the past seven days, the number increased to 14.6; hospitalizations were just below 10 in one of the last seven days. The FOPH also announced Thursday that most of the newly hospitalized were between the ages of 60 and 69. They are old, that is, they belong to the risk group.
Hospitalizations (average of the last 7 days)
Swiss hospitals had to treat more than 2,000 corona patients in late March / early April. We experienced the lowest level of people hospitalized due to Covid-19 after the peak in the spring at the end of June, when fewer than 100 people with Corona were in a Swiss hospital.
The number rose to around 140 cases in early August, fell back to the middle, but now it is around 160 Covid patients in Swiss hospitals, and here too the number has recently risen quite significantly.
Number of currently hospitalized
The intensive care unit
Beds in the intensive care unit are significantly less occupied by corona patients than in the peak of spring, when more than 400 Covid-19 patients were briefly in the intensive care unit.
In contrast to hospitalizations, the numbers here have remained relatively constant in recent weeks with just over 10 patients. However, it is also clear: a higher occupancy of hospital beds only leads to more intensive cases with a delay. So it remains to be seen how the situation develops.
Number of people in the intensive care unit (current)
Deceased
Fortunately, deaths also stayed low for weeks. We are far from the more than 60 daily deaths in early April.
However, there has also been a build-up here in recent days. Seven new cases were reported on Wednesday and Thursday (these may also be late reports, as reports can come in a bit late). However, the number of deaths has increased slightly recently.
In principle, deaths are unlikely to increase significantly as long as intensive care units remain low.
Number of daily deaths
Age distribution
The low number of hospitalizations and deaths is due to the fact that young people in particular become infected with the corona virus, experts reported. In fact, the U50 age group has always accounted for more than 75% in recent weeks. This week it fell below the three-quarters mark for the first time and stands at 73%.
The relocation of the young to the old, which has been feared for weeks, has so far been little. However, there has been a trend in this direction for the past two weeks. The proportion of people over the age of 60 increased from 7.3 percent in mid-August to 13.7 percent in the last seven days (previous week: 11.6 percent).
And the under-40 group went from nearly 70% of new infections in mid-August to 56% today.
Age distribution of new infections in weekly average:
quarantine
Since early July, the FOPH has also reported those who are in isolation or quarantine due to contact tracing or who are returning from a country at risk.
Here we show the respective 7-day average. It should be noted that the FOPH does not receive reports from all the cantons every day. Therefore, the information may be delayed in some cases.
In recent days the number of people in isolation has (logically) increased again, as more cases were reported.
Number of people in isolation in an average of 7 days
Practically in parallel with people in isolation, the number of contacts in quarantine also develops.
Number of contacts of people in contact tracking quarantine in an average of 7 days
The effects of summer holidays can be seen in people who had to be quarantined after returning from a country at risk. Since these ended up everywhere in late August, the number has dropped significantly.
