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The President of the United States contracted Covid-19. How is he? How does this affect the electoral campaign? Did it infect Joe Biden during the television match? Political analysts and experts on the most important issues.
“It’s a shocking twist. We are one month away from the vote and the quarantine lasts at least 14 days. Since it is positive, it could be longer. And the situation could get even worse, “says ABC White House correspondent Jonathan Karl. That night, US President Donald Trump announced that he and his wife had tested positive for the virus (to the message).
How are the triumphs?
On the president’s health, ABC correspondent Jonathan Karl said: “Trump is not only in an unfavorable situation because of the upcoming elections. He is over 70. He is not known for leading an active lifestyle. He doesn’t really play sports. This is a paralyzing moment for the president and the country. “
“If Trump becomes seriously ill, Mike Pence has to replace him, even in the election campaign. In 14 days there would be a television debate between Trump and Biden. But the president may still be in quarantine. Nobody knows now what happens next, ”says ABC journalist Cecilia Vega.
During the weeks of the election campaign I was always away from home, sometimes with and sometimes without a mask: Donald Trump with First Lady Melania here at an air force base.
Photo: Carlos Barria (Reuters, September 29, 2020)
So far, the president doesn’t appear to have any symptoms, says CNN host Brian Stelter. I had heard him speak shortly before, he sounded like always. However, according to “New York Times” reporter Maggie Haberman, Trump’s voice is said to have sounded hoarse in recent days. Dr. Leana Wen says on CNN that it could take up to a week for the presidential couple to develop symptoms.
“The news is disturbing,” says CNN medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, “but not surprising.” The virus is highly contagious, it doesn’t care who you are. “What really overwhelms me is that hardly any precautionary measures were taken at the highest office in the country. There was a very lax attitude, there were close contacts, there were meetings. “That has always been a concern. Statistically, the president has a high probability of making a full recovery from Covid-19.
Who could be in danger now?
A question that is now being asked again in the United States: Could Donald Trump have infected his opponent Joe Biden in the television duel a few days ago? Although the two candidates were at a distance from each other, Trump sometimes yelled in Biden’s direction. As Dr. Jennifer Ashton explains on ABC News that the 1.8 meter distance between Trump and Biden is considered safe. “But there are a lot of things we still don’t know about the virus,” says Ashton. “Also, the viewers only saw part of the night. We don’t know what Trump and Biden did during the commercials. If they approached. We also don’t know how good the ventilation was in the room. So there are a lot of factors that could have contributed to the Joe Biden contagion. “
Dr. Jennifer Ashton on ABC News: “But there is a lot we don’t know about the virus.”
Vice President Mike Pence was with the president in the Oval Office on Tuesday, according to the applicable rules, he would have to be quarantined, says Dr. Sanjay Gupta on CNN. He’s curious how the White House will cope. Contact tracing is important. Questions arose: who was close to the president, who did he shake hands with? “It’s about the leaders of the country.”
On Twitter, Pence wishes President Donald Trump a speedy recovery. “Karen and I send our love and prayers to our dear friends, President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump,” Pence wrote on Twitter Friday on behalf of his wife Karen. “We join the millions across the United States who are praying for a speedy and full recovery. God bless you, President Trump and our wonderful First Lady Melania, ”Pence wrote.
How does Trump’s illness affect the election campaign?
What effects are expected in the electoral campaign? “The result of the test is a game changer. The president has attacked Joe Biden multiple times because he was asked to wear a mask when he appeared. Trump himself only wore a mask a few times in public. He always said that the pandemic will end very soon. But now he can no longer downplay this disease, ”continues ABC’s Karl.
The positive corona test has the potential to affect Trump’s election campaign, said Sean Callow, a currency strategist at Westpac. “He has a lot to do and that is an interruption. Also, the positive test is detrimental to him because it speaks against the whole assessment that there is really no need to worry, it brings the crown crisis back to center. “
Meanwhile, UBS is sticking to its forecast on the outcome of the US elections. “That has not changed. In our baseline scenario, we assume that Biden will win, ”says UBS Chief Economist for Switzerland Daniel Kalt. In particular, a serious illness could reduce Trump’s chances – that is, if he can’t make major appearances in particularly competitive so-called swing states shortly before the Nov.3 election. “The candidates are vigorously turning to get the last votes from their side. In that sense, that’s a disadvantage for Trump, “says Kalt. Currently, the course of the infection is not predictable. Also, Trump has caught up recently. “It cannot be copied,” Kalt said.
How does the test affect US crown policy?
CNN analysts are debating whether this will now be a turning point in crown policy. It’s a terrible wake-up call, says Carl Bernstein, a CNN political analyst. It was a decisive moment, the presidency changed. “Are we going to start doing what the scientists say now?” He intervenes.
“The president knew for a long time that the disease was dangerous,” says Dr. Sanjay Gupta about it. It is now directly affected and cannot hide. The White House must now be completely transparent, for example when it comes to symptoms. “We saw how the disease changed Boris Johnson, not only in terms of health, but also in the way he thinks.”
How do the financial markets react?
“It will be very interesting to see if the dollar will remain a ‘safe haven’ in this situation or if investors will switch to the yen now. I don’t remember we’ve ever been to a comparable point before, ”says Bloomberg Daybreak expert John Authers.
On the stock exchanges, prices fell globally and the price of oil also fell. In contrast, the franc, which is in demand as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, rose. The reason for this was the uncertainty among many investors about whether and to what extent Trump’s illness will have consequences for the election campaign. That now largely depends on the course, says market strategist Claude Zehnder of Zürcher Kantonalbank. “If things go wrong, the roadmap for the US presidential election will be full of questions.” So it is not clear if the prescribed pace can be followed and television debates can be carried out. “The election campaign without Trump would be completely different,” says Zehnder.
However, with a mild course, no major changes are expected. “But maybe it will raise the Trump family’s awareness of how to deal with the virus a little bit,” says Zehnder. He expects the hustle and bustle of financial markets to subside relatively quickly.
However, the deciding factor is how much the virus has spread in the White House. “I guess a lot of people are being tested in the Trump environment now,” says Zehnder.
In the worst case: what’s next?
There are also evaluations that the news could have an impact on national security: “It is the worst case,” says Miles Taylor, a former Homeland Security employee during the Trump administration. We should be worried. Vice President Mike Pence now has to prepare for the event he must take on. ”Another concern is that US opponents could use this to make people lose confidence in the election.
Samantha Vinograd warns on CNN: “This is a ‘code red’ for the United States government. This could be the most dangerous moment the US government has ever faced. “CNN’s Homeland Security analyst continues:” It feels so surreal, like we’re watching an episode of the ‘Homeland’ series. The United States has contracted a deadly virus. He has to be quarantined. He can no longer fully perform his duties. And based on the number of people he meets on a daily basis, without wearing a mask, it makes sense that other senior members Government rank may also be infected. The US government is extremely vulnerable right now. “
The rules of representation for a temporarily incapacitated American president were not formalized until the 1960s. The 25th Amendment to the United States Constitution, signed by President Lyndon B. Johnson in 1967, stipulates, among other things, that the incumbent you can hand over the business to the vice president, for a certain period of time or until further notice.
If a president is unwilling or unable to regulate his failure himself, the vice president and a majority of the cabinet members can notify Congress that the vice president will take office. However, this has not happened since the amendment went into effect.
The constitutional reform also regulates the succession in the event of death, resignation or cessation of office: then the previous vice president has full powers.
