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Before meeting with Putin, the controversial president of Belarus wanted to show that he had the situation under control. But the demos show a different picture. Mainly by women.
Alliance of Convenience, Not Friendship: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko visits Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi (February 2020).
Image: Imago Images
In the end, tens of thousands flock to Minsk again for large protest marches against the ruler Alexander Lukashenko. Too many to stop. Belarusian security forces had once again blocked squares and government buildings with barbed wire in the center of the city. Police, Omon special forces and masked men without official insignia have been arresting peaceful protesters since noon, often brutally.
They also dragged the women into unlabeled minibuses. The rule to leave women alone during protests no longer applies since Saturday, when more than 70 participants in women’s demonstrations were arrested. On Sunday, the Interior Ministry counted 250 arrests in the afternoon.
No more restraint – Omon’s special forces and masked men drag women into unlabeled minibuses.
Photo: Keystone
The protesters were not discouraged; in many cities they took to the streets on Sunday for the fifth consecutive week. In Minsk they not only flocked to the central monument of victory, the stele. They also moved to other parts of the city, for example to Drasdy, Lukashenko’s place of residence.
It was the first protest without Maria Kolesnikova, the first without prominent opposition leaders. Lukashenko had declared unconstitutional his idea of initiating a transfer of power through a coordinating council and involving all groups in society. All high-ranking members of the council were arrested or had to leave the country.
Maria Kolesnikova is in prison
Only Svetlana Alexievich, winner of the Nobel Prize for Literature, has remained, and the security forces are now pressing her as well. Maria Kolesnikowa he had resisted deportation to Ukraine and has been in detention ever since. Her lawyer said that Kolesnikova had filed a lawsuit against intelligence officials who threatened her with physical violence if she did not leave Belarus.
The regime wants to take action: the rule to leave women alone during protests no longer applies from Saturday.
Photo: Keystone
Perhaps Alexander Lukashenko wanted to show the Russian president that he had the situation under control. Big protests on Sunday spoiled Lukashenko’s impression. This monday should Wladimir putin in Sochi, the first meeting since the Victory Parade in Moscow in June. Lukashenko is now playing a role that he has always wanted to avoid: that of supplicant to the “older brother,” as he recently called Putin in an interview.
The meeting in Sochi will be about joint trade
From the Kremlin it was briefly said that Sochi was about joint business projects, the economy, energy and culture, and about the “process of progressive integration within the state of the Union.” Lukashenko had so far thwarted this stronger cooperation, arguing that he wanted to preserve the independence of Belarus. Now he seems ready to sacrifice them to Russia if that keeps him president. For the Kremlin, which has wanted to unite Belarus more closely with itself for decades, the protests turn into an opportunity. It was said that there were no plans to sign any documents in Sochi.
Putin had already publicly promised Lukashenko’s support: in an interview with Russian state television, he promised a special unit in case things got worse in Minsk. However, shortly afterwards, the Kremlin declared that it had not yet seen the need to do so. Putin’s assurance was probably also a signal to Lukashenko’s security apparatus and the political elite in Minsk that the ruler would be supported by Moscow.
No way out: Police blocked a protester in large protests on Saturday.
Photo: Misha Friedman (Keystone)
Russia has already sent an auxiliary force: journalists close to the Kremlin have long replaced the striking workforce in Belarusian state media. In addition, there was moral and economic support: Putin declared the opposition Coordinating Council unconstitutional.
Minsk’s $ 1 billion debt in Moscow has already been refinanced. Now there is also talk of sending Belarusian exports through Russian ports. Until now, Lukashenko has relied heavily on the Lithuanian port in Klaipeda. Lukashenko threatened to boycott him and, from his point of view, Lithuania supports the opposition movement.
The Belarusian population is actually for Russia
Putin himself has no reason to trust Lukashenko. A few weeks ago, he accused Russia of wanting to interfere in the elections. Putin has no interest in letting Belarus become a case, for example, of how to vote for an autocrat. However, Russia’s aid is no guarantee that Moscow will view Lukashenko as a long-term fault. The more Lukashenko allows aides to enter his system, the more expendable he becomes to the Kremlin. Until now, he has relied on Lukashenko as a negotiating partner and has therefore tolerated him despite his constant volts.
Putin supports Minsk’s idea of changing the constitution. Lukashenko can thus save time. For Putin it is an opportunity to influence reform and possible new elections. In return, he agrees to frustrate the Belarusian population. So far he has been mostly friendly with Russia. The opposition leaders wanted to work together. But Putin has chosen the other side.
