Noon in Bern: will the Federal Council decide on the closure? That’s what matters now: Switzerland

Again on Friday, again the Federal Council meeting, and again the crucial question: What crown measures is the state government deciding? Tightening is required from all sides until blocking.

Ahead of the crucial meeting on Friday morning, we explained what measures are being debated in the Federal Council, who is asking what, and why a fierce fighting is likely to take place again:

What does the Minister of Health, Alain Berset, want?

Earlier this week, the responsible Health Minister, Alain Berset (SP), proposed to the cantons three packages of measures, linked to a real traffic light system. This is based on four indicators, namely the 14-day incidence, reproductive value, test positivity rate, and health system utilization. And these are the escalation levels that can be activated as needed:

1. The catering establishments will be closed with the exception of take away food stalls. The same applies to sports and leisure businesses. Cultural and entertainment establishments also remain closed.
2. There are capacity restrictions when shopping: only a certain number of people can enter a store at the same time. Protection of vulnerable populations, such as nursing home residents, is being intensified. As in spring, the right to work from home is established. Anyone who belongs to the risk group but works in a job that requires physical presence can get a leave of absence. Who will pay the loss of income in this case is still open.
3. Stores that do not sell groceries and other necessary goods will be closed. There are two variants: either the stores that generate two-thirds of their sales with groceries can continue to offer the full range, or they have to cover the area with products that are not used for daily use. A maximum of 10 people instead of 15 can meet spontaneously in the open air.

According to non-public consultation documents, the first stage should start on December 28, if the number of cases remains at the current high level and the reproduction value is just above 1 or the intensive care beds are 80 full percent. The federal government would initiate the second stage if the R value exceeds 1.1 and the intensive care units are 85 percent full. With an R-value of 1.2 or a utilization of 90 percent, the third level of scaling would come into play. The R value is currently 1.13. It would mean: climbing level 2.

So, won’t the shutdown happen before December 28?

Barely. Health Minister Berset actually wanted his escalation plan approved on Friday. However, public pressure has increased dramatically this week; Pressure for the government to decide on new national measures on Friday.

The cantons in particular turn to the Federal Council with clear demands. These come particularly from German-speaking Switzerland, where some even want the Federal Council to return to rule with the emergency law and declare the “extraordinary situation”. Even health directors who have been reluctant to date are now asking Federal Bern to take stricter measures; otherwise, they would order them themselves. Even the director of Economiesuisse, Monika Rühl, changed her attitude and is no longer blocking new measures. On the contrary: “We can’t wait any longer,” he told NZZ.

Could restaurants, leisure and sports centers in Switzerland be closed again for the weekend? In the middle of the week, observers assumed that the blockade would not come until Wednesday, December 23. According to information from “Blick” and the “Tagesanzeiger”, Berset is now in favor of closing the restaurants as of next Tuesday. An exception should be applied to cantons with a more favorable epidemiological development. The sources confirm the information to the editorial staff of CH Media that the closure of the restaurants would last at least a month. Meanwhile, stores are likely to remain open for now.

The health minister is likely to accept the harsh demands of the cantons, that’s for sure. However, according to sources close to the Federal Council, the state government reacts mainly to the relevant indicators, less to public pressure. After all, it’s indisputable that the numbers don’t look exactly right.

How is the dynamics in the Federal Council?

Much is completely open. This is demonstrated by conversations with people close to the magistrates. Even the closest employees of the Federal Council can hardly estimate at this moment what decisions the government will make at their meeting. The Federal Council is a black box. Or to put it more positively: the committee of seven doesn’t just approve, they really fight to find common solutions that everyone can support.

In recent weeks, Health Minister Alain Berset has put forward his ideas over and over again: for example, he originally wanted to limit the capacities of ski areas on December 4, introduce a home office requirement and enforce a rule of two households. In the extraordinary meeting of the government on December 8, he wanted to close all restaurants and all shops on Saturdays and Sundays, without success. On Friday, December 11, Berset had to be happy that the government established a curfew for restaurants at 7 p.m. and asked that stores close on Sundays.

The chronology of Berset’s failed applications shows how happy the Health Minister is about the cantons’ public backing, which he obtained at a joint meeting this week.

The dynamics of decision-making had recently been influenced by Federal President Simonetta Sommaruga (SP), according to sources. Namely, with a joint report on December 4, in which he called for a traffic light system based on objective criteria. According to reports, the SP Federal Councilor came across the dispute over the capacity limits of the ski area. I couldn’t go on like this, he thought.

As can be heard in the Federal Palace, all members of the government are now concerned about the situation. As always, the spotlight is also on FDP Federal Councilor Karin Keller-Sutter. She is the creator of the majority. Do you side with the aggravating Sommaruga, Berset and Viola Amherd? Or those of Ueli Maurer, Guy Parmelin and Ignazio Cassis?

His situation is further complicated by the fact that, as a pub affiliate, he has a very open ear for the catering industry. The fact that the restaurants opened earlier than originally planned in the spring was also due to her. Furthermore, his own party, the FDP, is one of the harshest critics of the Federal Council. In recent weeks, liberals have strongly advocated for federal solutions. Observers say Keller-Sutter is currently under a lot of pressure.

What’s next Friday? The three women and the four men still don’t know.