Natural gas dispute in the Mediterranean: what Greece and Turkey are about

Erdogan is escalating the border dispute in the Mediterranean: you need to know these 4 things

The dispute between Greece and Turkey is intensifying. More recently, Ankara issued war threats. But what is it really about? An overview.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan indirectly threatened the Greek government with war over the weekend. «We are not fleeing the fight. In this fight we are not afraid of leaving martyrs and veterans, ”he said.

“Do the Greek people accept what will happen to them because of their greedy and incompetent leaders?” He asked. “Do the French people know the price they will pay for their greedy and incompetent leaders?”

The motive for the rabid rhetoric was Greece’s decision to expand its territory in the Ionian Sea from six to twelve nautical miles. But there is a much bigger conflict behind this.

The history

The border disputes between Turkey and Greece have a long history. The current borders have their origin in the Treaty of Lausanne (1923). After the Turks won the Greek-Turkish War from 1919 to 1922, the Greeks had to surrender Izmir (the Greek Smyrna) and Eastern Thrace (the European part of Turkey).

However, under Erdogan, these limits were repeatedly questioned. In 2016, for example, the Turkish president described the Lausanne Treaty as a “defeat for Turkey” and spoke of “unfair provisions”, taking into account the Aegean islands, which are “one phone call away” from Turkey. He specified: There was a “fight over what is a continental shelf.” More on that later.

At the time, these statements were interpreted as motivated by internal politics. After the coup attempt in 2016, Erdogan wanted to show strength. But after gas fields were discovered in the disputed areas, Erdogan’s remarks become more explosive.

What are we talking about?

Ultimately, the current escalation has to do with natural gas and who has the right to drill and extract it.

A year ago there were disputes over three gas fields off the coast of Cyprus. Turkey sent the “Fatih” drill ship to search for gas fields, without a license.

The current conflict concerns alleged natural gas deposits in the eastern Mediterranean. The Turkish exploration ship “Oruc Reis” has been searching for natural gas since July. The problem: Explorations are being carried out in maritime areas claimed by Greece or Cyprus, and also by Turkey.

A glance at the map shows the situation: the maritime zone between Crete, Rhodes and Kastelorizo ​​is controversial, and this is exactly where Turkey looks for natural gas.

The route of the expedition ship “Oruc Reis” can be easily followed on the page “Sea traffic”. The mission was originally planned for a two-week period in August, on Monday night the Turkish government extended it again until September 12. Illegal, says Greece and speaks of provocation, unrest and destabilization of the region.

Turkey contradicts and believes that the maritime zone belongs to Turkish territory. To consolidate its claim, Turkey concluded an agreement with Libya late last year to define the economic zones between the two countries.

Greece, in turn, copied this action and concluded a similar agreement with Egypt: Turkey was left with nothing and practically no maritime areas.

International law expert Nele Matz-Lück assesses the two agreements in relation to the German Tagesschau as follows:

How are claims legitimized?

To understand who is arguing and how, one must analyze the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. It defines what is known as an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for coastal countries. This EEZ extends well beyond twelve nautical miles of the territorial waters of a country. A state has the exclusive right to economically exploit mineral resources up to a maximum of 200 nautical miles or 370 kilometers from the coast. If the coast of another country is closer, the center line between the two coasts applies. The Greek islands of Rhodes and Kastelorizo ​​greatly reduce the Turkish EEZ.

Turkey is now putting the so-called continental shelf into play. Since Crete and Rhodes are not mainland, but only islands near the coast, Greece’s claim expires. Turkey’s reasoning is not out of the blue: Greece is reluctant to see the case in an international court because the outcome would not be clear.

This is shown in an example from the Atlantic: the French islands of Saint Pierre and Miquelon are located off the east coast of Canada, the small archipelago has only 6000 inhabitants. However, it claimed a 200-nautical-mile EEZ of fishing zone for itself. An arbitration court denied the claim and only allowed one corridor to the fishery. A 200-nautical-mile EEZ would have practically excluded Canada from the Atlantic.

International lawyer Matz-Lück assumes that Turkey’s chances would be relatively good: “In international settlement of border disputes it is recognized that the length of the coast plays a role and is taken into account, and that smaller islands that distort a border if necessary, it would remain off limits. ”

What to do with threats of war?

The Turkish expedition wanted to provoke from the beginning: not in vain the research ship “Oruc Reis” was accompanied by warships.

The Greeks, for their part, responded with greater alertness and asked the “Oruc Reis” to leave the waters every quarter of an hour by radio. French President Macron’s announcement that he would send warships to the region also did not appear to impress Ankara and tended to exacerbate the climate. Attempts at mediation by the EU and Donald Trump were unsuccessful.

Greece also made no effort to defuse the situation. Although the expansion of territorial waters occurred last week in the Ionian Sea, that is, off Italy, Athens announced that more expansions are open.

This must clearly be seen as a provocation, as the Turkish parliament declared in 1995 an expansion of Greek territorial waters in the Aegean Sea to become Casus Belli. In other words, if the Greeks expand their territorial waters off the Turkish coast, Ankara could start a war without obtaining parliamentary approval.

Now comes the big but: both states could not afford a war. The Turkish economy is on the ground; a military conflict would cause the Turkish lira to fall further. Greece is also affected: the Crown crisis has also hit its most important economic sector, tourism, hard.

The saber rattling in the Mediterranean probably serves one purpose above all else: a show of power intended to distract attention from internal political issues.