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The fight for Nagorni Karabach continues, although the cannons should be silent. Civilian targets were also hit. The President of Azerbaijan is starting new negotiations without concessions.
Mourning at the coffin of a fallen man in Stepanakert, the capital of Nagorni Karabach.
The truce in the Nagorni Karabakh war did not even last a few hours. After eleven hours of negotiations under the auspices of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Sohrab Mnazakanjan and Jeyhun Bayramov, agreed on Saturday night in Moscow to end the fighting for humanitarian purposes. Skirmishes between Azerbaijani troops and Armenian-supported units from the unrecognized Nagorni Karabakh republic continued immediately, especially around the city of Hadrut. Armenia also reported on the bombing of Kapan, which is outside the actual conflict zone on Armenian territory.
On Sunday night, Azerbaijan again fired at civilian targets in Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, which is largely inhabited by ethnic Armenians. At the same time, like a week ago, the Karabakh attacks on Azerbaijan’s second largest city, Ganja, were severely damaged in residential areas. It is said that there were deaths and injuries. The Armenian side rejected this. Ganja is close to the disputed areas, but has nothing to do directly with the conflict. The main objective of the ceasefire, the evacuation of the fallen from the combat area and the mutual delivery of remains and prisoners, was not achieved. It is unclear what that means for the agreed start of “substantial negotiations” to resolve the conflict.
Early certainty of victory
The attempt to end the most violent and costly fighting over Nagorni Karabakh since the 1994 ceasefire, which broke out two weeks ago, was initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had agreed to do so. Basically, a ceasefire seemed to benefit both. The fight was very costly. They are led by the Azerbaijani side with the latest military technology, with the help of Turkish advisers and Syrian mercenaries recruited by Turkey, and from Karabakh with Armenian help. Azerbaijan probably managed to make small territorial gains. These are largely uninhabited areas around the Nagorni Karabach mountain region; Over the course of the war in the early 1990s, Armenia occupied seven Azerbaijani provinces as a security zone and displaced the population.
However, observers surmise that Azerbaijan hoped to invade Armenian positions in view of its possibly superior military influence and obtain faster and greater land gains, at least on flat ground. Even before the meeting of foreign ministers in Moscow, President Aliyev had announced something of a victory in a speech to his people, who had been hit by propaganda. Azerbaijani troops increasingly controlled their territories. The front line no longer exists. That shows that there is definitely a military solution, he said. This attitude is shared practically unanimously among the Azeri population, especially among the displaced, who often live in precarious circumstances to this day.
High pressure on Aliyev
The pressure on Aliyev is correspondingly high. From Azerbaijan’s point of view, the ultimate goal of “bringing home” the seven provinces and the Nagorni Karabakh region, which is also under Azerbaijani law, is within reach. Baku can hardly afford to lose this situation at the negotiating table. Therefore, Aliyev left no doubts about his tough demands on Armenia. From Azerbaijan’s point of view, there is only one solution: the complete withdrawal of Armenia from all areas belonging to Azerbaijan according to international law. After that, the displaced Azeri population could return and try to live alongside the Armenians, he said.
The fighting in recent weeks, especially the attacks on Stepanakert, and the propaganda from both sides that accompanied the war are such a heavy burden on peaceful coexistence that today it is difficult to imagine even after a peace agreement. Armenia and Nagorni Karabakh, which is protected by her, perceive this war as proof of the need for security zones and the completely broken relationship.
Fear of annihilation
The Azerbaijani-Turkish alliance, which is by no means new, raises fears of annihilation in Armenia. The country pays a very high price in this war. Precisely for this reason, it is questionable whether Prime Minister Pashinyan can afford any concessions. However, the fundamental principles of the peace process that have never been revoked provide for the gradual withdrawal of Armenia from the Azerbaijani provinces with a guarantee of security and negotiations on the final status of Karabakh. Yerevan, too, had once accepted these principles.
During the ceasefire talks in Moscow, the conflicting parties confirmed the existing form of conflict regulation in the so-called Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. This is particularly convenient for Russia, which has a decisive influence there. Aliyev regards Moscow’s role in conflict resolution as outstanding. But in an interview with the Russian media group RBK, the Azerbaijani president also demanded that Turkey strengthen itself in the negotiation process. This is unacceptable for Armenia.
