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President Milo Djukanovic has been Montenegro’s strong man for three decades. In Sunday’s parliamentary elections, his party failed for the first time to obtain a majority.
The President of Montenegro, Milo Djukanovic, appears in front of his party colleagues after the closing of the polling stations.
The smallest of the Yugoslav successor states has two constants in its recent history that are quite indicative of the state of democracy there. First: Montenegro’s fate has been led by the same man since 1991. Milo Djukanovic, who is now head of state after seven terms as head of government and who pulled strings in the background during the brief free intervals, also outshines Belarusian ruler Aleksander Lukashenko. Sunday’s elections don’t change that, regular presidential elections don’t expire until 2023.
A sharp advantage of the opposition
The second constant, however, could be over. So far, no election in Montenegro has resulted in a change of government. But this time the government of Djukanovic’s Democratic Party of Socialists is in danger. According to projections, the party was again the strongest force at 35.1 percent on Sunday. Prime Minister Dusko Markovic’s previous governing coalition got only 40 out of 81 votes and thus lost a majority by a margin.
The 41 remaining seats are divided between three opposition blocs, all of which have ruled out cooperation with Djukanovic’s party beforehand. The pro-Serbian coalition “For the Future of Montenegro” received the most support among opponents of the government, and with 32.5 percent of the vote it became the second strongest force. The “Peace is our nation” bloc and the “Black-on-White” alliance supported by civil rights activists and intellectuals achieved 12.5 and 5.7 percent respectively.
Montenegro is a deeply divided country
Since the end of last year, Montenegro has been under the spell of a controversial religious law that has driven deep gaps among the country’s 630,000 citizens. Polarization also cuts across the opposition camp. The government’s legislative proposal stipulated the nationalization of all church property that had not been in the church’s possession prior to 1918. The Serbian Orthodox Church, the country’s largest religious community, would have been the worst hit. Before the restrictions related to the pandemic, church supporters protested the new law several times a week.
It was always about more than questions of religious politics. Ties with Serbia are traditionally very close. Until 2006, Montenegro was part of a confederation with its great neighbor. About forty percent of Montenegrin citizens consider themselves to be ethnic Serbs. And about 70 percent of the population are members of the Serbian Orthodox Church.
Djukanovic relies on demarcation for reasons of power politics. He promoted the creation of his own written Montenegrin language, although there are hardly any differences from Serbian. It is also promoting the reconstitution of a national church of its own. This is not recognized by the other Orthodox churches. The controversial religious law must be seen in this context, as well as the tenacious dispute with Belgrade during the first wave of the pandemic over the opening of the borders with Serbia.
Presumed scenario of the course between the West and the East
With such maneuvers Djukanovic stands in front of the population and in front of the western countries as the protector of the independence and Euro-Atlantic integration of Montenegro. This also includes warnings about new interference from outside before the elections.
After the last parliamentary elections, the government said it had prevented a Russian-backed coup attempt. Many questions remain unanswered about the incident. In fact, there are forces in the opposition bloc “For the future of Montenegro” that resolutely reject the pro-Western course and defend a connection with Russia. However, there are also many opponents of the pro-Western government. A large part of the population is in favor of joining the EU.
Montenegro has been a member of NATO since 2017. EU accession negotiations have stalled for a long time, and not just because EU countries are tired of enlargement. With Djukanovic, Montenegro has taken considerable legal steps backwards. In a well-known report, the US non-governmental organization Freedom House classified Montenegro, like Serbia, no longer as a democracy in 2020, but as a “hybrid regime”.
The related dissatisfaction in the country was last noticed on a large scale in 2019. As in Serbia, a protest movement was formed in Montenegro that denounced abuses such as widespread corruption in the country. However, the political identity dispute over the law of religion has largely overshadowed the constitutional debate.
Even the pandemic and its consequences played a subordinate role in the electoral campaign, despite the fact that the country that was the first in Europe to be free of Covid-19 has experienced an equally dramatic development in recent weeks as most countries. of the Region. The economic consequences are also devastating. In Montenegro, tourism accounts for a good quarter of gross domestic product.
Will Djukanovic accept the result?
Djukanovic’s identity-politics strategy did not work. The fact that the opposition started from three clearly distinguishable blocs, in which opponents of the government with very different positions could be found, has contributed significantly to its success. To bridge these differences, the representative of “Black-on-White”, Dritan Abazovic, called for the formation of a government of experts. In any case, it will be difficult to reconcile the very different positions of opponents of the government.
Furthermore, there is uncertainty as to whether Djukanovic will recognize the result. In addition to the opposition, his Democratic Socialist Party also declared the winner of the elections on Sunday night. The strongman of Montenegro is weakened. It is not yet clear how things will continue with the small Adriatic country.
