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The R-value indicates how many people a person who tested positive infects. When the Federal Council imposed a partial blockade, it assumed a relatively high R-value. For December 4, the R value was estimated at 1.13. That means an exponentially growing number of new infections. The value can only be estimated with a period of time, since it takes eight to ten days from infection to the appearance of symptoms. The R-value is often retrospectively corrected, as was the case on December 4. The “Tagesanzeiger” reported on Monday.
The value has been corrected to 1
On December 14, the value of December 4 could be calculated for the first time. On December 22, ETH corrected the R-value from 1.13 to 1.05. A week later, the result of the calculation was exactly 1, a value significantly lower than the estimate at the beginning.
When the Federal Council announced a tightening of crown measures on December 18, it was guided by this overestimated R-value. The value is above the critical limit of 1. The Corona task force assumed that the number of cases would double in one month. As a result, the Federal Council imposed a partial blockade as of December 22. Restaurants, bars and leisure facilities had to close in Switzerland. This condition is still valid today.
Criticisms of the R value
In the English-speaking world, it has been criticized for several months that the policy is too oriented towards the R-value. During the holidays, ETH researchers suspect a relatively low R-value for Switzerland. But that could be related to the fact that it is less tested. For example, the R-value for December 18, which according to Monday’s ETH researchers’ publication was 0.86, could be estimated too low.
