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Maria Kolesnikova, one of the main opposition leaders in Belarus. Image: www.imago-images.de
Interview
Opposition leader arrested in Belarus: expert expresses grave fears
According to several media reports, the Belarusian opposition politician Maria Kolesnikova has been detained on the border with Ukraine. According to various sources, she was prevented from escaping there or resisted deportation. It is now certain that the Belarusian security forces are holding her, but it is not yet clear where.
The 38-year-old activist is one of the most important members of the opposition who opposed the controversial head of state Alexander Lukashenko and who decided not to go into exile. Other colleagues from the opposition body had previously been detained or forced to leave the country. Some had also fled out of fear, such as the presidential candidate Svetlana Tichanovaskaya, who is currently in Lithuania.
Watson wanted to know why Kolesnikova was arrested a moment ago and what her disappearance means for the opposition movement in Belarus from the expert in Eastern Europe, Sarah Pagung.
Were you surprised by the disappearance of Maria Kolesnikova?
Sarah Pagung: Not really. We have already seen in recent weeks that Lukashenko is cracking down on the opposition’s ruling council more and more. It was just a question of whether he and the politicians at his side would really dare to arrest the leaders. But from the regime’s point of view, that is the logical strategy to identify the numbers of these demonstrations.
For a long time it was not entirely clear where he was and until now it is unclear how he was arrested. What do you suppose?
It will have been the security forces of the regime. The circumstances are not entirely clear yet, but we have relatively strong state structures in Belarus that have arrested members of the opposition in the past. This is the difference with the Navalny case: in Belarus, it can be assumed with certainty that, ultimately, it was the security forces, or at least someone acted on their behalf. These are clearly the ones who will benefit from it.
Sarah Pagung, an expert on Eastern Europe at the German Foreign Policy Society. image: zvg
Do you think Alexander Lukashenko’s government wanted to take advantage of the current attention on the Navalny case to crack down on Belarus?
I think it happened more because of an internal logic in Belarus. The demonstrations have not stopped. Last weekend we had hundreds of thousands on the streets again. Lukashenko’s strategy of not participating works only moderately. He had to act in some way to at least minimize the protests. The longer the protests go on, the sooner an opposition structure will manifest.
How important is Kolesnikova for the opposition in Belarus?
Its function is more symbolic. Kolesnikova is not really a politician, she slipped into this position. Since her boss was unable to participate in the presidential elections, she ran. Therefore, it is above all a figure of identification. She was the only remaining leader of the Coordinating Council of the opposition. Everyone else is arrested or fled the country.
For weeks, the opposition in Belarus has been protesting the alleged electoral fraud of the incumbent President Lukashenko. Image: www.imago-images.de
What could the permanent disappearance of Maria Kolesnikova mean for the opposition in Belarus?
Either it leads to a “now more” mentality among protesters – or to the weakening of protests because there are no longer channels to direct them. Currently that is not predictable. However, I hope that now that the opposition’s political superstructure has been attacked, the protests will also be put down. Ultimately, also because sitting has been shown not to work.
Of course, there is a third possibility for Lukashenko: to respond to the demands …
Theoretically that would be possible. But if he responds to the demands to the extent that they are on the table, it would mean that Lukashenko would lose power. It will not do that. What you can do is make certain reforms: the carrot and stick principle. So nothing in his power will change. It would be more like a fig leaf to offer a kind of bone to the protesters and suggest a policy change without changing anything in the system.
