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Middle East
Is Trump planning a farewell attack on Iran?
Observers express concern about the anniversary of the assassination of Qassem Soleimani. An attack would lead the country into chaos.
Revered to this day in Iran: assassinated General Qassem Soleimani.
Almost exactly a year has passed since the United States killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani with a combat drone on January 3, 2020. Tehran-Washington tension is correspondingly high at the moment. US President Donald Trump explicitly warned Iran against further attacks on the US embassy in Baghdad, which had received rocket fire shortly before Christmas. Shortly after Trump’s announcement, American long-range bombers flew provocatively over the Middle East.
Observers such as political scientist Tom Nichols believe that Trump may launch a war with Tehran in his final days. Shortly after his electoral defeat in November, Trump asked his advisers about options for US military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump’s advisers advised the president against an attack at the time.
Soleimani, 62, was killed on January 3, 2020 when a US combat drone fired on his vehicle near the airport in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. Soleimani embodies Iranian values such as courage and endurance, revolutionary leader Ali Khamenei said recently. His murder was “definitely” avenged. Soleimani’s killers, including Trump himself, are not safe anywhere on earth, Iran’s Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi added.
Islamic Republic star falls rapidly
The death of the general, who is revered in Iran, opened a void in the Iranian leadership structure that has yet to be filled. Soleimani commanded the foreign troops of the Revolutionary Guard and directed Iranian foreign policy. Under his command, Tehran expanded its influence in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon and fueled conflict with regional rival Saudi Arabia through the war in Yemen. His successor, Ismail Qaani, does not have the charisma of Soleimani and is more of a coordinator than an active shaper of Iranian politics.
This is not the only reason that Iranian influence in the Middle East is declining. Trump’s sanctions have hit the country’s huge economy hard and make it difficult for Tehran to financially support allied groups like Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen. The corona pandemic, which hits Iran harder than all other Middle Eastern countries, is also weakening the Islamic Republic.
Above all, however, there is growing rejection of the regime in Iran’s areas of influence, while archenemy Israel is strategically better off thanks to the peace treaties with the Arab states. Protests against Iranian influence go on for months in Iraq and Lebanon.
So far, the Iranian regime has refused to make changes. The protests against the government were brutally suppressed. Tehran does not exude any real strength.
