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SIGI CARPENTER
The threat of terrorism in Switzerland remains accentuated, as the Federal Intelligence Service (NDB) shows in its “Swiss Security 2020” report published on Tuesday. The driving force behind this remains the Islamic State. In the eyes of the jihadists, Switzerland is a legitimate target, but it is not in the foreground.
According to the NDB’s findings, the potential for violence from local extremism on the left and right has not diminished. The most intense violence by left-wing extremists remains limited to objects, such as arson. Left-wing extremists increasingly participate in acts of violence during demonstrations. In addition, his scene tries to subvert and instrumentalize movements like “Black Lives Matter”.
According to the NDB, right-wing extremists are currently relatively cautious. But they practice martial arts and accumulate weapons. With them, the risk of an attack comes from those who act alone and who do not belong to any right-wing extremist group.
At the international level, various actors struggle to influence. The strategic environment in Switzerland is determined by the power struggle between the United States and China. Russia wants to consolidate its influence in Europe. And there are various crises and conflicts on the European borders.
According to the NDB, the United States will remain the world’s largest power beyond 2020. The transatlantic relationship and the US presence in the Middle East are likely to continue to decline in importance. The resulting gaps should be filled by geopolitical competitors and want to use them for their own interests.
China sees itself on par with the United States. This increases the competition between the western liberal system and authoritarian state capitalism. At the international level, the situation is increasingly determined by the strategic competition between the United States and China. According to the FIS, this continues until exclusive zones of influence are established.
Russia wants to keep up with the United States and establish its own zones of influence. Ukraine, like Belarus, remains the center of attention of the Kremlin after the presidential elections. Regarding Belarus, President Vladimir Putin clearly warns the West against any influence.
The FIS cannot give a detailed answer to the question of the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the virus is expected to strengthen and accelerate existing trends. This includes the end of the world order formed by the United States and its alliances.
It is questionable whether a stable order will be reestablished in the foreseeable future. The FIS considers a new bipolar order between the US and China possible. The development of a system with several poles of power is even more uncertain.
International tensions go hand in hand with espionage. Espionage damages Switzerland’s image as the host country for international diplomacy. Furthermore, Swiss interests are directly threatened by espionage in the financial center, innovative companies or institutions. In addition, there is surveillance and threats against members of the opposition by foreign powers.
Espionage and international power struggles generally take place in cyberspace. Switzerland has so far been spared acts of sabotage.
