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How long will the crown wave last to the elderly?
Covid-19 circulates mainly among the young population. That is why the number of hospital admissions and deaths remains low.
There were 340 new corona cases on Friday. The limit of 300 has been exceeded in Switzerland for a few days. However, the age mix of people who tested positive has changed compared to the first months of the pandemic: the proportion of young people infected has increased significantly and transmission appears to take place mainly in the young population (see graph ).
The partially restored daily life allows people to get closer despite the rules of hygiene and distance. Additionally, many returned from vacation two to three weeks ago, and their positive lab values are now being reported to the Federal Office of Public Health. It is not yet clear how many of the vacation travelers brought the virus with them, as epidemiologist Marcel Tanner explains.
There are many places of infection for young people, not only in clubs and bars. After the summer holidays they meet again in sports clubs, sit together in the wardrobe, and then for the cozy third half. If there is a case that tested positive, the entire team must be quarantined. A circumstance that increasingly hinders the operation of clubs in amateur football. Several minor league soccer games have already had to be postponed due to quarantine measures.
An explainable crown paradox
Despite the increasing number of infections in August, hospital admissions and deaths due to Covid-19 have fortunately remained stable. This also applies to neighboring Germany, which is why there is talk of the paradox of the crown there. However, the situation is not paradoxical, as Marcel Tanner of the working group says: “The reason lies mainly in the current age mix of the infected people. Because children are now mainly affected, who are less seriously ill, there are fewer hospitalizations. “
The few hospital admissions and deaths are gratifying. But the Florida effect is feared. There, the coronavirus was initially rampant among the young, but later spread to the elderly. “You don’t have to fear that, but you should consider this possibility,” says Tanner. The Florida comparison lags behind anyway. “Florida is a group of older and older people, so with a high proportion of people at risk. The social fabric there is very different from ours, ”says Tanner.
But, of course, specific protection concepts for risk groups in Switzerland also have to be developed. “To do this, you must design the right solution for each location, tailored to the local situation.” In many places, this was done poorly at the beginning of the epidemic and people were left too isolated.
How is the coronavirus quarantine with children – in 21 images
“So they didn’t die from viruses, but from pain. Under no circumstances should you lock up elderly people, who are often lonely. “Many nursing homes had already found better and innovative solutions at the beginning of the crisis, so that people could still come together. Ethics specialist Ruth Baumann-Hölzle shares this view (see text below).
The most important thing now is not to awaken fear, but to show that there are ways to contain it. This applies to everyone: scientists, politicians and the media. This encourages those responsible to take the initiative themselves, be it the director of a dining room in a retirement home or the organizer of large events. The epidemiologist Marcel Salathé also says in the TX Group newspapers that you really don’t have to do much more than before, but better.
By that he means testing and contact tracing. Tanner explains that it takes five to eight days for an infected person to show symptoms, after which they carry the virus for an average of two weeks. A Covid-19 victim is therefore infectious for a long time. It is very important that testing is done quickly and that contact tracing can begin immediately. “If that goes too slow, we lose.” Salathé criticizes precisely the lack of speed. Quarantining people who could potentially transmit the virus is the smart alternative to blocking.
It is also argued in Germany that the virus was more harmless due to the mutation and is therefore less severe than in spring. The virus spreads more through the nose than through the lungs and is therefore less dangerous. “There is still no clear scientific evidence for this,” says Tanner. The virus is constantly mutating, but so far it has not changed for better or for worse, as extensive sequencing of thousands of isolated viruses shows.
Covid-19 tests are reliable
In Germany, some mock because more tests are done, there are also more positive cases. In Switzerland, however, there is little more evidence than in spring. Therefore, the large number of infections cannot come alone. Corona’s deniers also doubt the quality of the evidence. The number of infections is too high because the Covid-19 tests, the PCR tests, gave hugely false results. Marcel Tanner emphasizes:
Of course, there could be incorrect results, especially if the test was not handled correctly, that is, an error occurred in the test procedure. The tests have been continuously optimized and validated, and much has been done in Switzerland to confirm them.
This is also confirmed by Wolfgang Korte, director of the ZLM Center for Laboratory Medicine in St. Gallen: “Well-confirmed PCR tests usually have a specificity of more than 99 percent.” This means that more than 99 percent of those who are actually healthy are also recognized as healthy in the test. However, it cannot be ruled out that there may be very isolated false positive results. However, according to Korte, the final results are only published after a plausibility check of the test, that is, after further testing if necessary.
According to Tanner, the discussion in Germany dates back to the first Covid-19 tests, which were not sufficiently validated. «There were legitimate points of criticism. Today’s testing is at a completely different stage and very reliable. “
