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Health Minister Spahn has a concerned tone, because the number of infected people has increased rapidly. Public life could be restricted again. Virologist Hendrik Streeck, for his part, speaks of arbitrary limit values and warns against a one-sided view.
A metro station in the Neukölln district of Berlin, where the virus is currently spreading rapidly.
Only the harshest optimists could seriously assume that corona infection numbers would remain low in the colder months. The latest development in Germany is likely to have surprised even the pessimists: in 24 hours, new registered infections rose from around 2,500 to over 4,000. “I am very concerned about the numbers,” said Health Minister Jens Spahn . Not many, but too many people would have ignored measures to prevent the spread of the virus. This group is risking what others would have achieved, said the health minister.
In Germany, the question now arises as to whether a second lockdown is imminent. It is less about the fact that public life could be shut down across the country, but about concerns about a shutdown in particularly affected cities like Berlin. If there are more than 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days, public life should be restricted again. The prime ministers of the federal states agreed to this in the summer.
However, Spahn did not want to compromise Thursday on what value a second lock would consider useful. When journalists followed up, he countered and spoke of a “headline debate.” The minister accused the media of wanting to push him in a certain direction and then be able to headline: “Spahn believes a second blockade is possible.” He denied the mechanics of the overheated German media business and gave a response that is typical of his track record in the pandemic: don’t compromise unnecessarily, drive at first glance and admit mistakes.
Health Minister Jens Spahn responded to questions from reporters on Thursday.
In late summer, for example, he said about closing in spring that with today’s knowledge one would no longer close barber shops and stores. On Thursday, he reiterated this position, as there were no proven virus outbreaks in Germany at the hairdresser, in the supermarket or on public transport. The spring scenario will not be repeated.
Shortly after Spahn’s press conference, Bonn virologist Hendrik Streeck invited a talk with the media. In his opinion, the current contagion figures are not comparable with those of the spring months, because a seasonal increase in viral diseases in autumn is normal and more tests are currently being carried out.
Streeck has made a name for himself because he often takes stubborn positions in the course of the pandemic. He kept appealing that Germans just had to learn to live with the virus. In public he was perceived as a counterweight to virologist Christian Drosten, who advised the federal government. Streeck gives little thought to the rule of converting 50 new infections per 100,000 residents in a week as a limit for tougher measures. He spoke of an “arbitrary” value that will inevitably lead some cities to a “partial blockade.” On Thursday, the so-called seven-day incidence in Berlin was for the first time slightly above the threshold of 50. Other German cities also exceeded the limit, for example Frankfurt am Main or Offenbach.
Streeck advocates a risk assessment similar to the traffic light systems that, for example, Berlin and Austria have introduced. These represent the explosive nature of the situation with the traffic light colors and do not just take one value into account. Not only Streeck, but also the Prime Minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, calls for the number of free intensive care beds to be included in the assessment.
Spahn criticizes Berliners
Streeck considers plausible a forecast widely criticized by Chancellor Angela Merkel. A few days ago, he said that around 19,000 corona infections per day could be expected by Christmas. Although the health authorities are supported by the Bundeswehr, with this number it would be almost impossible to trace the chains of infection and warn contact persons that they may be at risk. At what point Germany will lose control over the course of the pandemic cannot be predicted, Spahn said. But he cautioned against “trying” it. Berlin is a negative example in this regard. Parts of the population reacted “ignorantly” to the danger posed by the coronavirus.
Besides all the reminders, Spahn also had good news ready. He announced that rapid antigen tests for the virus would be introduced from mid-October to prevent its introduction in hospitals and health centers. Germany has secured nine million tests per month. Spahn welcomed the de facto ban on night-time alcohol sales in Berlin, as alcohol encourages carelessness. Hendrik Streeck comes to a different assessment. From a virological point of view, the measure “does not make sense.” Social consumption of alcohol has not been shown to cause more infections.
A much more pressing issue, on which there is also dissension, is the possibility of a vaccine against the virus. Some virologists trust this, but Streeck has been skeptical since the beginning of the pandemic. No one can know if there will be a vaccine soon. “It may take ten years,” he said. His colleague Christian Drosten recently commented on this issue in an interview with “Zeit”. If vaccine development were to fail for “a completely inexplicable reason,” countermeasures such as contact restrictions would still have to be continued. How that should work socially, he didn’t say.
