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The canton of Zurich has introduced a mask requirement for shops, the surrounding cantons have not. This “experiment” allows unique conclusions. An analysis by NZZ shows that customers are reaching an agreement, but not everywhere.
A mask is required to purchase in the Canton of Zurich. The picture shows the Archhöfe shopping center in Winterthur.
Due to the demand for masks in the canton of Zurich, the shops have suffered a certain decrease in visitors and sales, but are generally limited. The NZZ showed this in an analysis three weeks ago.
It was the first systematic evaluation of its kind in Switzerland and probably worldwide. Because Swiss federalism has made possible a unique “experiment”: How does the mask requirement affect retailers in Zurich, compared to surrounding cantons, where this crown measure was not introduced?
The losses determined were much less than what the retail trade associations had predicted. They were in the single digit percentage range.
Novel data source
A good month after the mask requirement went into effect, another question can be answered: Have consumers gotten used to it? The answer is: in part. It depends on whether you are looking at grocery stores or other businesses.
Such conclusions result from an analysis of so-called real-time data. During the Corona crisis, a team led by economists from the University of St. Gallen began collecting data on all Swiss bank card transactions on a daily basis (“Swiss Consumption Monitoring”). This allows you to see how much the Swiss use bank cards to buy in stores (and elsewhere) every day.
Important comparison of regions
With this data, the effects of the mask requirement can be examined. In terms of method, a procedure is used that is called “difference in difference” in the professional world and that allows to measure the causal effects.
First, the purchasing behavior in the canton of Zurich is measured before and after the introduction of the mask requirement. Second, this development is compared to control regions that are as similar as possible, but where there is no mask requirement. Eastern Switzerland (cantons of St. Gallen, Thurgau, Appenzell Innerrhoden and Ausserrhoden, Glarus, Schaffhausen and Graubünden) and central Switzerland (Zug, Schwyz, Lucerne, Obwalden, Nidwalden and Uri) are used here.
The “double” comparison is important. For example, the Zurich mask requirement was introduced at the end of a beautiful summer. After that, it rained more often, which tends to drive people to the shops. If you only looked at the development in Zurich, you might wrongly conclude that the mask requirement even helped the stores. However, comparing it with neighboring regions where the climate was similar, the “pure” mask requirement can be filtered.
Supermarket customers adapt
How the results will be interpreted should first be illustrated by visiting the supermarkets. When the mask requirement was introduced, the number of customers in Zurich grocery stores initially decreased: in the first ten days after its entry into force, there were 6% fewer card transactions than in the previous ten days to its introduction.
In contrast, consumers in central and eastern Switzerland hardly behaved differently. This leads to the conclusion that the requirement for masks initially slightly damaged the supermarkets in Zurich.
Have supermarket customers got used to wearing masks over time? This can be seen in the chart of the next two 10-day periods. As can be seen, the differences between the regions narrow over time. Instead of the initial 6%, by the end of September they had been halved to 2% (Zurich compared to Central Switzerland) or 3% (Zurich compared to Eastern Switzerland).
This means that Zurich consumers have become less cautious over time. Getting used to it occurs.
A similar picture emerges for sales in supermarkets. Initially, Zurich grocery stores had to cope with a drop in sales from 2% to 6%. But by the end of September, the differences with the other regions had almost completely disappeared. Compared to central Switzerland, the supermarkets in Zurich now rose even slightly.
Overall, these results suggest that supermarket customers have largely become accustomed to the mask requirement after one month. This seems plausible – people can hardly avoid the grocery store aisle. Then, after an initial “shock”, they accept the circumstances.
Permanent losses in the rest of the retail trade
In contrast, the rest of the retail trade, which includes fashion, jewelry and florists, shows almost no habituation. After the introduction of the Zurich mask requirement, customers stayed here too: Visits and sales initially fell by 4-9% compared to eastern and central Switzerland. Unlike supermarkets, these differences only decreased slightly over time. At the end of September they were still 2% to 8%.
These figures suggest that the mask requirement has led to limited but permanent losses in customer influx and sales from the rest of the retail business. This seems plausible: clothes or jewelry are not part of everyday life. For this reason, some consumers may postpone entering the store or moving to regions without the requirement for a mask. However, overall, the losses for the rest of retail are not severe, they are in the single digit percentage range.
Learning from the Zurich experiment
The experiences of the Zurich experiment can be useful to politicians and citizens both in Switzerland and abroad. Internationally, little is known about the effects of a mask requirement on business. So far, the research literature has barely addressed the issue. One reason is that the effects are difficult to measure when a mask requirement is introduced in one country at the same time.
One of the strengths of Swiss federalism is evident here. The fact that cantons may act differently allows for small-scale experiments. In this way, politicians and citizens can better assess the consequences of various strategies to combat the crown. The Zurich experiment shows: Mandatory masks generate losses for businesses, but they are not great and in some cases they are only temporary.
