Final streak in the US presidential elections: looks like a record turnout



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More than 60 million Americans have already voted. What the first numbers reveal and what does not.

To queue for pizza: activists in front of a polling station in New York.

To queue for pizza: activists in front of a polling station in New York.

Photo: Jason DeCrow (AP / Keystone)

There is still a week left for the decision to be made: a week of election campaigns, polls and speculation. A large proportion of Americans voted a long time ago – nearly 60 million voted early, which is far more than at the same time four years ago. Analysts estimate that between 140 and 160 million Americans will ultimately vote. That would be a record. Four years ago there were 138 million voters.

It is not yet possible to say how the early and extraordinarily great rush to the polls can be explained. It’s probably a mixed bag: Due to the corona pandemic, most states have made so-called early voting easier. In many places, it has become easier for voters to request voting documents by mail. At the same time, local electoral authorities in many places have ensured that there are more options for early personal voting at the polling station.

Many first-time voters

So new opportunities are one reason, Donald Trump the other. There are signs that the battle for the presidency will bring people to the polls for the first time or the first time in a long time to vote.

According to the AP news agency, a quarter of the votes cast so far have come from new or irregular voters. No one can say today whether their votes will go to Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Joe Biden, just as one does not know who the other early voters are for whom they have voted.

However, some trends can be identified. According to an AP tally, 51 percent of the first few votes come from voters who are registered as Democrats, only 31 percent come from Republican voters. The rest are voters who have no party affiliation.

A matter of margin

This distribution is not surprising. Democrats have been asking their supporters to cast their votes as soon as possible for months. Above all, Republican supporters listened to Trump’s claims that mail-in voting could not be trusted because he was massively duped.

Therefore, one could speak of two elections: one before November 3, in which the majority of the votes will come from the Democrats. And one the same November 3, in der the majority of the electorate will be Republicans. Who will ultimately prevail depends on the margins. And they are usually rare in decisive states. (Read an analysis of the weakened American electoral system here.)

The Florida Advantage

In Florida for example, the biggest swing State, so far 5.7 million votes have been cast. Of this, just under 43 percent are Democrats and 36 percent are Republicans. To make up for this deficit, Trump’s party will have to get far more people to the polls on Nov. 3 than Democrats.

Republicans have done well in previous elections. Hillary Clinton also had an early voting lead in 2016, then lost it on Election Day.

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