Federal Council Decision – “It is a calculated risk” – News

Starting Monday, the Federal Council will once again allow private indoor meetings with ten people. How sensitive is that from an epidemiological point of view? SRF science editor Christian von Burg talks about calculated risk.

Christian von burg

SRF Science Editor

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Born in 1972, the journalist works for SRF’s science department. It started with the newspaper “Der Bund”, first with the local editorial team, then in Germany.

SRF News: The number of cases is increasing, the Federal Council is increasing the number of people who are allowed to be in a locked room at the same time. Christian von Burg, how do you assess this step from a scientific point of view?

Christian von Burg: It is a calculated risk. From an epidemiological point of view, it is difficult if ten people are allowed to meet again inside. Because the new variant of the virus is about 50 percent more contagious. Hopefully people will be cautious and get tested regularly as well.

Although it must be said that it is not as simple as Federal Councilor Alain Berset said at the press conference. In many places, you can’t just go to the pharmacy and get tested quickly because tests are lacking. And tests that can be done at home and have been on the market for a long time in other countries will only be approved in a month and a half, according to the FOPH.

Measures are tightening in neighboring countries. Is the epidemiological situation there much worse than here?

It depends on the direction you are looking in. In Germany, the number of new infections is roughly comparable. In Italy, France and Austria, on the other hand, it is twice as high. But what is the same everywhere: the numbers are increasing exponentially and it is interesting to see how different countries react in this situation: while our neighbors are tightening the measures, Switzerland is relaxing a bit.

The Federal Council has also come up with a strategy to introduce stricter rules when the number of cases increases. How likely are these rules to be triggered?

I think it is entirely possible. The Federal Council has proposed a case number of 350 new infections per 100,000 people within 14 days as the cut-off value for tightening. Today we are about half that number. But if the curve continues as it is right now, it is very possible that we will be there in three or four weeks. Also, unfortunately, more and more studies show that the British variant, which now accounts for almost nine out of ten cases, is not only more contagious but, contrary to previous statements, it is also around 50 percent more deadly. Unfortunately, the situation remains uncomfortable.