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Basel epidemiologist Marcel Salathé from ETH Lausanne is one of the best known corona experts in the country. In the interview he says to what he attributes the latest developments.
Marcel Salathé, almost 1,100 new cases in one day: does the much-cited second wave finally arrive?
Marcel Salathé: No, I don’t see a second wave yet. Sure, the curve goes up. Approaching spring values. But you cannot compare these curves with each other.
Why?
Much less testing was done in the spring. We lost nine out of ten cases at that time. We do not know how many cases remain undetected today. But there are definitely far fewer. Therefore, the two situations have nothing in common. Instead of a wave, I prefer to speak of fires, of local outbreaks. Switzerland is far from a situation like Spain with long-term exponential growth. But that doesn’t mean it can’t go that far.
However: for a long time the number of cases increased steadily, but slightly. Now they are going up very fast. What is happening now?
Based on some data from the cantons, I assume that certain cluster effects play a role. In Zurich there were things like that in the salsa scene. It was foreseeable that something like this could happen. The question is more whether growth will continue in the longer term because then we would have reason to worry again.
The latest numbers:
But aren’t you worried right now?
I do that when testing and contact tracing crash. However, I hope the system is robust and expandable. You also have to look at the local situation. There was a time when everyone talked about Geneva. You were very worried. Today the situation is reasonably stable. In my opinion, that is the strong point of the system: that the cases are followed locally. Take steps that work there.
Ten days ago you said in an interview with the “Sonntagszeitung” that it looked very, very good. Will you keep that?
Yes, a lot of the things I mentioned still look good in my opinion. Sure, the numbers are increasing. But don’t focus too much on short-term moves. The interview also covered advances in the scientific aspect, for example, vaccines. We are making good progress there. What also makes me feel confident is that contact tracing still seems to be working.
Can you really say that contact tracing and quarantine will work when we go back to 1000+ cases? The virus continues to spread. So does it come from outside?
That’s a good question, we still know little about it. You definitely have to do your research. The whole strategy is still necessary: carry out tests, find contact persons in positive cases, quarantine them. The tests now seem to be working fine. However, the question must be answered as to why the number of tests has recently decreased. I can’t understand that because the whole strategy is based on that.
What role does the weather play?
Certainly that is also a factor because more and more people are indoors. But it seems a bit premature to attribute everything to the weather alone. We might as well be dealing with groups that would have happened anyway.
Switzerland has so far fought this pandemic reactively. The decision of the canton of Bern to introduce a strict mask requirement is symbolic of this. Do we have to be more proactive now to survive the winter?
I think we still need a good balance between prevention and response. Don’t forget that we are still learning about the virus. We can aim to do it faster. Otherwise, I think the approach is good.
The state in the cantons:
So there is no need to wear a mask indoors and not go back to the home office?
If you adapt to the local situation, you can think of something like that. At the moment, I would not require it in all of Switzerland.
While the number of cases increases, the number of hospitalizations remains stable at a low level, the same applies to the number of deaths. In the population emerges the image of a virus that, although rampant, seems more harmless.
It is true that while the cases are there, they are not causing more hospitalizations or deaths. The big question is why. At the moment, many experts assume that it is mainly because many young people with lower risk are becoming infected. The next big question is whether it will continue to do so. And if then, as many epidemiologists suspect, they will attract hospitalizations and deaths, as happened in the spring. But there are also voices that say that the curve can no longer follow suit for various reasons. For example, because the virus would have changed and would be much less dangerous. We have yet to see any convincing evidence for this.
Here’s how the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in Switzerland is developing:
For the moment it all comes down to the fact that the risk group takes responsibility for itself and protects itself, while the rest of them are careless.
Personal responsibility is assumed, I agree. I see negligence, but only up to a point. You can also talk about the successes of Switzerland. So far we have taken a middle path that works relatively well. Sure, there were initial problems. But if you look at the general concept with quite sporty relaxation and put it in relation to the development of the pandemic, then I have to say: Ok, the path is doable. But you have to keep adjusting it. But it is also important not to confuse confidence with carelessness.
If the number of cases continues to increase in the future, those voices that see the Federal Council as an obligation will once again be louder. What do you say?
These voices have been around for a long time. I think the federal approach works quite well. Until now, whenever the situation was believed to be spiraling out of control, the spread has been slowed. I think it is epidemiologically and politically correct to be able to address regional differences.
