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- One year after the federal elections, the outlook for the parties is stable. This is shown in the latest SRG election barometer.
- The SVP is still clearly the strongest force in terms of electoral strength, but it is slightly in reserve and loses another 1.5 percentage points compared to the 2019 elections.
- As the winner of the 2019 elections, LPG increased by another 2 percentage points, while the Greens lost one percentage point.
One year after the federal elections, there is nothing in the SRG electoral barometer that indicates a change in the party rankings. According to the poll, the SVP remains clearly the strongest force with 24.1 percent of the vote, followed by the SP, FDP, Greens, CVP and GLP.
If the Greens were the big winners in last year’s election with an increase of 6.1 percentage points, it seems they have reached their potential for now. You lose one percentage point on the electoral barometer.
In contrast, the other 2019 winner (+3.2 percentage points), LPG, may currently even win another two percentage points.
There are no changes for 2019 in the traditional FDP and SP parties. They can keep their share of the vote. The voting shares of CVP and BDP also barely change. The BDP loses 0.5 percentage points, the CVP gains 0.5. The SVP, which lost 3.8 percentage points in the elections, lost another 1.5 percentage points. This is demonstrated by the survey carried out by the sotomo research center on behalf of the SRG.
According to political scientist Michael Hermann, the renewed loss of the SVP can be attributed to the fact that the issue of immigration has lost importance even among the rank and file of the SVP. “Only 45 percent of SVP voters say immigration is one of the most important issues. But if this draft horse no longer favors the vice presidency, it will be difficult for this party to mobilize. “
Covid-19 as the most important challenge
Unsurprisingly, respondents currently view Covid-19 as the most important political challenge. 61 percent of the electorate ranks the fight against the pandemic among the top three political priorities. The dominant theme of the 2019 elections, climate change, remains very much present as the second most important challenge despite the crown crisis. Third and fourth, however, are the economy and unemployment, two issues that are directly related to the pandemic.
The pandemic has clearly caused major changes in voters’ perception of the problem. The economy and unemployment, for example, are cited as the biggest challenges by nearly three times as many respondents as a year ago.
Virtually all other subject areas, however, have clearly lost their urgency. For example, only 16 percent cited immigration as a major challenge (prior year 26 percent), and good relations with the EU were only mentioned by 13 percent (prior year 34 percent).
As a result of the crown crisis, economic problems have a much higher weight. However, this change in perception of the problem has obviously had little effect on voting intentions so far. According to Michael Hermann, this is normal: “It is very typical that a change in perception of the problem takes a while to affect party sympathy.” However, if economic issues remain significant with Covid-19, hopefully parties with proven economic competence will benefit.
