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Donald Trump or Joe Biden? The United States elects a new president. Who will lead America for the next four years is wide open. According to calculations by “The New York Times”, here are 5 scenarios.
Scenario 1 – Clear victory for Trump: This is a huge success for Republicans and a setback for Democrats. It means that voters remain loyal to Trump and that his 2016 election was not a mistake. Trump achieved a majority in the states decisive for this.
A clear Trump victory is also a setback for electoral prophets. Recently, he gave Trump a probability of about 10 percent. Your victory is not impossible, but it is unlikely.
Scenario 2 – Narrow Trump victory: Trump stays with Florida and wins smaller states like Nevada or New Hampshire. Then you can also lose other states like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Most people go to Biden. But due to narrow victories in several swing states, Trump wins the election. Also because Biden was unable to mobilize white seniors in Florida and Latinos in general.
However, brief departures in various substates are likely to lead to lawsuits that have yet to be brought in court.
Scenario 3 – A tie: A tie is also possible. On January 6, 2021, Congress will count the votes of the electors. If there is not a majority of 270 voters for a candidate, the House of Representatives is responsible first. However, it is not the majority of the members of the House of Representatives who decide, but the majority of the states. Representatives from each state cast a vote together. The candidate who receives 26 votes becomes president. As of now, the Democrats have a majority of deputies, but not of the states in the House of Representatives. However, it may look different after the election.
If there is no majority in the House of Representatives, the newly elected Senate elects the Vice President by simple majority, who then becomes President on an interim basis until the House of Representatives finds a result.
Scenario 4 – Close victory for Biden: A success and a great relief for Biden and the Democrats, a narrow defeat for Trump. The result corresponds to the surveys. Biden benefited from a large turnout of blacks and Latinos and achieved a solid result with whites. Biden may win back states in the Rust Belt that Democrats lost in 2016.
As with a narrow election result in favor of Trump, several states would argue over the election result and sue in court even with a close victory for Biden.
Scenario 5 – Crushing victory for Biden: Biden can bring back the states that were lost in 2016 and will also bring in the states where polls have predicted a tie. He even wins in the more recently Republican-oriented swing states of Iowa and Ohio.
Biden benefits from the massive turnout of black and Latino voters, and scores well among whites. The polls weren’t entirely correct, Biden does better than expected. If Biden also won in Texas, it would be a sensation.
