Economic forecast – Seco lowers forecast for 2021 – News

• The Secretary of State for Economic Affairs (Seco) expects real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 3 percent in 2021 compared to the previous year.
• In the latest October forecast, federal economists had assumed a 3.8 percent increase.
• If the epidemiological situation improves, growth should rebound significantly in the course of 2021, according to Seco. However, the uncertainty remains extremely high.

GDP looks a bit better this year than it did in the last forecast. La Seco now expects a 3.3 percent drop; in October, the Seco was still taking a 3.8 percent decline. Shortly after the spring close, a much more severe cut was expected. For example, at the end of April, during the shutdown, the Seco forecast a drop in GDP of 6.7 percent.

Many uncertainties

For the first time, Seco has dared to make a forecast for 2022. Then, GDP growth is estimated at 3.3 percent.

La Seco expects the economic recovery to expand gradually. Provided that hardly any measures are necessary to contain the coronavirus in 2022, particularly exposed economic sectors such as international tourism should also find a way out of the crisis.

However, Seco is not very sure of the forecasts either. It emphasizes that the uncertainty remains “extremely high.” The greatest uncertainties exist in relation to the corona pandemic and the possible reactions of economic and political actors.