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The second crown wave overshadows the tentative recovery of Swiss tourism. Due to the increasing number of infections and travel restrictions, economists at the KOF economic research center at ETH expect the number of overnight stays by European tourists this winter season to be a third below the previous year. Guests from long-haul markets like China and the US are likely to be largely absent this winter, as the KOF announced in its forecast on Tuesday. As a result, overnight stays in the winter season are around 30 percent lower than in 2019.
At the same time, KOF economist Jan-Egbert Sturm (51) warns: “Unfortunately, our negative alternative scenario is increasingly likely, with the pandemic, reporting much more violently and with significant restrictions in the sectors.” In this scenario, overnight stays in the winter season would drop to half their pre-crisis level.
A faltering recovery is only expected in 2021
Although the demand for Swiss holidays in the summer was “extremely strong”, it could not offset the drop in overnight stays by foreign guests. The number of overnight stays from abroad was 40 percent lower than the previous year. Tourists from neighboring countries and the Benelux were mainly attracted to Switzerland.
According to KOF’s estimate, the Covid-19 pandemic will erase 13.3 million overnight stays in 2020. This corresponds to a 33.7 percent decrease compared to the previous year. In urban areas, losses are significantly greater than in mountainous regions.
The hotel industry expects a loss of sales of 1.6 billion francs in 2020. According to the forecast, this year there will be a drop in sales of more than CHF 10 billion for the entire industry. The drop in spending by foreign tourists is particularly significant. Swiss tourism will also remain under pressure next year: the return of major long-distance tourists is not yet in sight. “Demand from long distance markets should only slowly recover after spring 2021,” Sturm hopes. KOF expects a loss of demand of 6.2 billion francs in 2021 compared to the year before the 2019 crisis.
Price drop in hotels
According to the KOF survey, nightly hotel prices have declined and should not return to pre-crisis levels until 2022. Package tours and flights have also become cheaper. According to Sturm, there is strong price pressure here. By contrast, prices in the catering sector have risen slightly.
