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The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain establish diplomatic relations with Israel. The signing of the accords in Washington is celebrated with great pomp and glory: the White House receives 700 guests for it. It is understandable that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, is organizing these agreements on a large scale. There is an electoral campaign. And Trump’s success is a great way to distract attention from his overall dismal foreign policy record.
United against Iran
The laurels for diplomatic advancement are not for Trump, of course, but for someone who does not want them: the Iranian leadership. It was the rapid expansion of Iran’s sphere of influence – in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon, in Yemen – that brought Israel and the Arab Gulf states closer together. And that happened, at least quietly, before Trump moved into the White House.
The approach is based on the principle “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. In Jerusalem, as in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh or Manama, Iran is considered the enemy. People unite against him, especially in the area of security and secret service.
Israel had long had commercial offices in Qatar and Oman. In Abu Dhabi it has official representation in the United Nations organization for renewable energies. It has long been clear that Israel will have its own pavilion at the Dubai World Expo. And when Israel repeatedly threatened to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities, it was allowed to tacitly assume that Saudi Arabia would not formally, but de facto, allow the overflight of Israeli warplanes.
“Win-win-win” situation
Now the Emirates and Bahrain are the third and fourth Arab countries, after Egypt and Jordan, with which Israel is establishing diplomatic relations. More are likely to follow, probably Oman, possibly even Saudi Arabia. Their King Salman is still reluctant to be accused of being a traitor to the Palestinian cause. But the fact that Bahrain is now ready for normalization is unthinkable without the Saudi agreement: the dependency is too great.
The historic step means a win-win situation: for the United States, for Israel, for the Gulf States. The Sunni and anti-Iranian front is strengthening against the Iranian Shiite. Although the Arab-Israeli normalization does not become a loving relationship, it does generate an economic coexistence and, above all, security-political coexistence.
Frustrated Palestinians
Where there are winners, there must be losers: one of the losers is the Palestinians. They are frustrated that the Gulf states are giving up the link that a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a prerequisite for Arab-Israeli normalization.
The second loser is Iran. Your room for maneuver is now severely restricted. Now he faces a common front between Israelis, Sunnis and Arabs. Therefore, the Palestinian and Iranian sides are unanimously acknowledging normalization with Israel with wild words.
As rewarding as the emerging new order of power in the Middle East is for those directly involved, it also carries risks: The Palestinian problem is not simply disappearing. If it is not resolved, it will continue to create discomfort. And a vulnerable Iran haunted by encirclement fears will not necessarily be more peaceful, but possibly even more aggressive.
Fredy gsteiger
Diplomatic Correspondent, SRF
