Democrats determine Trump challenger

Presidential petition Joe Bidens is currently overshadowed by sexual assault allegations against a former employee.

Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

The latest developments

• Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden vehemently rejects the sexual assault allegations against him. You are not true. That never happened, “the former vice president said Friday (May 1) in a written statement. For the first time, Biden made public statements about the allegations against him. A former aide to Biden’s time as a senator, Tara Reade, accuses the now 77-year-old of having slammed her against a wall in a Senate building in 1993, reaching under her skirt and penetrating with her fingers. Biden’s campaign has clearly rejected the allegations; the Democrat has so far been silent about the allegations. The MSNBC television station had previously announced that Biden would respond to the allegations on a show on Friday morning.
• Hillary Clinton supports Joe Biden. Right now, the country needed a leader and a president like Biden, Clinton said Tuesday (April 28) during a live broadcast with Biden. “I wish you were president now,” he said in Biden’s speech. Clinton warned that it would be good for the country if there were a president in this crisis that was based on science and facts and united the United States, and not just someone who “played a (president) on television.” Biden thanked Clinton and said he should have been president at the time. Clinton himself ran for Democrats in the 2016 election, but was later defeated by Republican candidate Donald Trump.
• United States President Donald Trump rejects rival Joe Biden’s speculations about a possible postponement of the presidential election due to the Crown crisis. “I never thought of postponing the election date,” Trump said Monday night (April 27) at a press conference in the White House rose garden. This is “made up propaganda” that an employee of former Vice President Biden has released on his behalf. November 3, the planned election date, is a good date. “I am looking forward to this choice.” Biden said reporters at a virtual fundraising meeting last Thursday said he believed Trump wanted to postpone the election because he thought it was the only way to win.
• Influential Senator Elizabeth Warren also officially endorses Joe Biden as a Democratic presidential candidate. Warren, who had withdrawn his request in early March, posted a video message to Twitter on Wednesday (April 15), in which he promised Biden his full support. In the current crisis, it is more important than ever that the next president leads with integrity, competence and heart and that people have faith in good governance. He also said in an interview with MSNBC that he would accept a possible offer from Bidens to campaign with him as a vice presidential candidate. Biden had announced that a woman would be appointed to the position.
• After the decision was made in the Democratic race, former President Barack Obama expressed his support for Joe Biden. Obama speaks in a 12-minute video message about the crown pandemic, which now requires leadership, also in the White House. Choosing Joe Biden as Vice President was one of the best decisions of his life and he became a close friend. He believed that Biden had all the qualities that a president should have now. The explanation is not a surprise, but Obama had kept himself completely out of the party’s internal conflict in recent months. However, he had repeatedly warned the party not to move too far to the left. According to US media reports, he is said to have worked behind the scenes to ensure that the ranks of the moderates closed behind Biden shortly before “Super Tuesday.” The former president’s voice is heavy, and he remains the most popular exponent of the party. In the video message, he also announces that he will temporarily accompany Biden on the election campaign.

• Left-wing Senator Bernie Sanders has officially pledged his support to the only remaining presidential candidate, Joe Biden. He called on all Americans to support Biden’s presidential bid, as he does, Sanders said Monday in a joint online presence with his previous opponent. Donald Trump is the most dangerous president in the recent history of the United States. It is important to make sure that Trump only has one term. “We need you in the White House,” Sanders told Biden’s speech. He himself would do everything possible to make this happen. Sanders had abandoned the Democratic presidential race last week.
• Democrats have announced that they will postpone their nomination convention, scheduled for mid-July in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, until the week of August 17. In doing so, they want to avoid having to virtually hold the traditional party assembly, where delegates officially elect the presidential candidate in a very pompous election year due to the crown virus. Originally around 50,000 participants from around the country were expected for the event, in addition to the more than 4,000 delegates, other celebrities, and thousands of journalists. The Republican Party Convention does not take place until the end of August. President Trump recently spoke out against a cancellation. It is open if both events can really take place.

The most important things soon

In the US bipartisan system. In the US, only two people have a realistic chance of moving to the White House in the presidential election. Voter choice is therefore very limited. The party’s base in the primaries decides who will become the official Republican or Democrat candidate, a method that European parties have only occasionally adopted in recent years.

The primary procedure differs between the parties and from one Member State to another. For applicants, it is not about getting as many votes as possible, but as many delegates as possible for the party’s national conference in which the candidate is officially nominated. The first primaries, which are important due to their symbolic effect, and those of member states with a high number of delegates, such as California or Texas, are particularly competitive. Primaries traditionally begin with assemblies in Iowa. The highlight is always the “Super Tuesday,” which took place on March 3 this year. More than a dozen member states held primary elections and, in one fell swoop, 34 percent of all delegates were appointed to the party’s national convention. Here you will find a detailed calendar with all the data and facts.

While former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton entered Democrats as a big favorite in 2016 and the prospect promised more tension among Republicans, the situation was reversed this year. No promising candidate challenged Donald Trump as the incumbent. Therefore, in several member states, Republicans decided not to use the primaries.

Area codes in detail

With the primaries, the two main parties in the United States determine their respective candidates for the November presidential election. In every member state, in the District of Columbia and on the outskirts of the United States, they let the base choose. In doing so, delegates are distributed who must commit to a specific presidential candidate. These delegates in turn nominate the official candidate at national party conventions in the summer. As a general rule, delegates are required to vote for “their” candidate at the party convention, with exceptions.

A total of 2,552 delegates participated in the Republicans, 4,750 in the Democrats, of whom 3,979 had full rights to vote in the presidential candidate’s free skating. If an applicant achieves an absolute majority of these delegates in the course of the primaries, he will be nominated as an official candidate. The objective of this process is to demonstrate unity to the television audience with the party convention and to celebrate the candidates to be selected. Therefore, the event is an important element in the “real” electoral campaign for the White House. The party’s tough internal conflict must take place beforehand and not overshadow this “coronation ceremony.”

On the Democrats’ side, the 2020 election year started with two favorites and several promising outsiders. Joe Biden led the field relatively clearly on average in the polls with an advantage of around 10 percentage points over Bernie Sanders, the left senator from Vermont. Both benefited from his high profile: Biden as lifelong vice president Barack Obamas and Sanders as a surprisingly persistent challenger to Hillary Clinton in 2016. The senator was behind the two veterans. Elizabeth Warren, who had even briefly topped the polls in the fall, and the young politician Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of the state of Indiana. Due to his Midwest background, the senator was also allowed Amy Klobuchar Calculate the chances of success in the first two primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire. An unconventional strategy finally followed Mike Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York. It omitted the first preselection states and relied entirely on the populous member states that voted “Super Tuesday.” He spent about half a trillion dollars on advertising in these states.

The Iowa Caucuses, who were overshadowed by chaos due to data transmission malfunctions, brought with Buttigieg a surprising winner, even if he was a stone’s throw from Sanders. Biden only finished fourth, behind Warren. Less than a week later, Buttigieg and Sanders again took the lead in New Hampshire, but this time with the Sanders lead. Klobuchar performed surprisingly well, while Biden won less than 10 percent of the vote. For the first time, Nevada was also referring to the votes of a large ethnic minority, nearly 30 percent of the population are Latino. Sanders won with such a clear advantage that fear of a party march through the left-wing revolutionary was felt in the establishment of the party.

However, the most important of the first primaries in terms of the delegate votes to be given, those of South Carolina, turned the race upside down. Biden had completely trusted this member state and received almost half the votes. Not only did he get a big boost from “Super Tuesday” a few days later, but it also showed that the other moderate candidates did not have the backing of African-Americans, one of the Democrats’ top voters. Biden’s victory unleashed a remarkable dynamic. Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropped out of the race and argued over Biden.

Mild shoulders: Pete Buttigieg (right) speaks for Joe Biden as a Democratic candidate.

Elizabeth Frantz / Reuters

After this late deal at the moderate camp, “Super Tuesday” became a win for Biden. It won ten of fourteen states, including the Texas towns and the southern states. Sanders won in California, but because Bloomberg underperformed, he was unable to significantly distance Biden. The “national code” caused a change. Biden surpassed Sanders in delegate statistics, Bloomberg also surrendered and spoke for the former vice president. A little later, Warren also ended his campaign, but without a statement of support for the Sanders with a similar political position.

The rest of the March primaries beat almost everyone, including in major states like Michigan, Illinois and Florida. The decision seemed to have been made, but the crown pandemic plunged the conflict into chaos. Both opponents were only able to direct their electoral campaign virtually from their respective homeland, while more and more member states postponed their primaries for weeks. After the Wisconsin primaries in the midst of a health emergency in questionable conditions, Sanders understood and announced the end of his request. Even if he wants to continue gathering delegates in order to influence the content of the electoral program, Biden is sure to be a “suspected candidate.”

As a former vice president from 2009 to 2017, Joe Biden is familiar with the mechanisms of government affairs. The former Delaware senator also knows very well what is important when working with Congress after decades of experience. Biden also has the advantage of being known nationally. But Biden, who has made a name for himself primarily as a foreign politician, is not known as a good activist; two previous attempts at the management of Weisses Haus, in 1988 and 2008, failed miserably. A mortgage is your old age; He would be 78 years old when he took office. Frequent verbal slips do not help counteract these concerns. Since September, Biden has also been dealing indirectly with the Trump issue in Ukraine. In connection with this, Biden is accused of having faced a conflict of interest as Vice President and a key figure for Ukrainian diplomacy in the Obama administration because his son Hunter was doing business in Ukraine at the same time. (Link to NZZ video)

You can find an overview of all the other previous applicants here.

After his shameful performance in the first member states, Joe Biden’s political obituaries were already written; According to the well-known dynamics of the primaries, it was considered that it had no chance. Since the beginning of the government system, no candidate who has not been in either of the first two places in Iowa or New Hampshire had won the Democratic nomination. There are several reasons for Biden’s change.

• Sanders was unable to expand his base: The enthusiastic youth who flocked to the Sanders events prompted him to promise that he would mobilize entirely new groups of voters for the Democrats in the fall. However, the primaries did not confirm this claim. Young people participated in primaries below average, as in the past, while Sanders was unable to convince electoral groups as important as African-Americans. Most Midwest industrial workers, unionists, or women also voted the offers, all of which will be decisive electoral segments for Democrats next fall.
• Trump joins the party: Time and again, polls show that it is more important to Democrats that their candidate beats Donald Trump than that he represent his own political views. Biden was more likely to see this “eligibility” as a basis. After the moderate wing joined behind him, Sanders had no chance.
• Corona virus: The pandemic pushed the electoral campaign to the background and showed that the leadership experience will be more important in the coming months than the visions for the transformation of the country. Biden delivered to the advantage. Furthermore, the appearances in front of enthusiastic crowds, from whom the Sanders campaign lived, were made impossible due to the crisis.

On the Republican side, the initial position with the President-in-Office was always clear. As controversial as Donald Trump was four years ago as an applicant, the party is now behind him. He submitted the documents for a new candidacy to the electoral commission just five hours after his oath in January 2017, as soon as no headline. Former Massachusetts Governor William Weld and former Congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois also filed an application. Both are no longer politically active and are rude strangers. Republican primaries were canceled in several member states. Both Walsh and Weld have given up the race. Trump already secured the nomination on March 17 with a sufficient number of delegate votes.

• Origin story: Primaries are considered typically American today, but the constitution does not provide for this system. In the United States, it was the local party elites who appointed delegates to the national conventions. In the early 20th century, the progressive reform movement democratized the selection process. In 1910, Oregon became the first member state to introduce an area code that required delegates to support the appropriate winner at the party convention. However, in many countries, primaries in the first half of the 20th century were “beauty pageants”, in which the popularity of the candidates was tested. A trigger for new rules was the chaotic Democratic party convention in 1968, when Hubert Humphrey was elected as a candidate without winning a single area code. Thereafter, most delegates had to abide by the result of the area code in their country. By 1992, parties had introduced primaries in about 40 member states using the current system.
• The procedure: Two types of primary, primary and caucus, dominate today. In the first, delegates who commit to a specific presidential candidate are elected at the ballot box. The assemblies, on the other hand, are party meetings in which those present are selected. This procedure is an advantage for candidates who have a particularly motivated base, such as Bernie Sanders. The national party leadership now prefers ballot elections, but leaves the party sections to decide on the procedure. In 2020, Democrats will only have Caucuses in six member states, including Iowa. Fewer than 5 percent of Democratic delegates are awarded this way, compared to 14 percent in 2016. Republicans have fewer member states. There are also “open” and “closed” primaries, depending on whether only party members are admitted or not party members or even counterpart members. With Democrats, delegates in all member states are distributed in the proportional system based on election results, while with Republicans, the winner is often assigned all delegates (“winner takes all” principle) . Additionally, Democrats only receive delegate votes if they have more than 15 percent of the votes in a member state. The details of the procedures differ not only between the parties, but also between the member states.
• The moment: The primaries traditionally begin with the Iowa Assemblies, which took place on February 3 of this year. The first primaries took place a week later in New Hampshire. For both sides, these two primaries are only around 60 delegates each, an insignificant number in the final accounts. However, the candidates focused their electoral campaign on these early voting states months before the start of the primary elections, because they emanate high symbolic power. After months of campaigning, they are the first real test, and the winners are immediately drawn to the dazzling public spotlights. For this reason, a whole new dynamic may emerge.
  So since 1992 no one has become a democratic presidential candidate who has not won in Iowa or New Hampshire. Republicans have never had an official party candidate since the emergence of the modern pre-election system in the 1970s that had not won in either pre-election state. Just one month after the first area code, Super Tuesday takes place, with elections in more than a dozen member states. This year, both California and Texas, the two most populous countries, will be voted on. This means that almost two thirds of the delegates will be assigned in February and March.

• Are the voices binding? While the primaries grew out of non-binding popularity tests (“beauty pageants”) for the candidates, the Democratic Party today forces all primary-appointed delegates to vote for “their” candidate at the party convention, whether for a certain number of ballots or even The applicant releases the delegates.
• What about the votes of applicants who are gone? In principle, the delegates of the withdrawn candidates are “free”. However, applicants often make a recommendation for a competitor who remains in the race, to whom delegates can vote, but do not have to.

• What are superdelegates? So-called superdelegates are politicians who officially participate in the party conference, including members of the party organization and congressional groups, governors, and former party leaders. Therefore, they are part of the party establishment and can freely decide at the convention who they want to vote for. The idea is that with their political experience they can correct the decision of the bases. Democrats represent 17 percent of the vote at the party convention. In 2016, most of them spoke early about Hillary Clinton, drawing criticism from the Bernie Sanders base and camp. Thus, the rules have been changed for 2020. Superdelegates should no longer be able to participate in the first convention vote, dramatically reducing their influence. Republicans also know superdelegates, but there are only three per member state and are generally forced to vote for the winner of the respective area code.
• What happens if the primaries don’t make a decision? In the unlikely event that no candidate has won an absolute majority of delegates during the primary, there is the option of a “contested convention” or “negotiated convention”: in this case, delegates are asked to vote first at the party conference. If no one receives an absolute majority in the first round, internal party negotiations begin. In subsequent electoral courses, almost all delegates are gradually released from their voting restrictions and are free to choose an applicant. In this way, the balance of power in the party convention can change. The last time a candidate came to the party convention without the majority of the delegates was in 1984. Walter Mondale was missing a few dozen votes in advance, but he was nominated for the candidate.

A key issue for Democrats is expensive healthcareafter the Republican majority in Congress eroded the Affordable Care Act known as Obamacare. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are primarily campaigning with the buzzword “Medicare for All”. In doing so, they are promoting an expansion of existing state health insurance for retirees and the disabled (Medicare) to all Americans – a tax-financed unit fund that excludes private providers. The other favorites, on the other hand, advocate a state fund in addition to the existing system, especially for those that private providers cannot afford. Such a “public option” had failed under Obama. The fact that moderate applicants now also advocate for a state fund illustrates the Democrats’ left turn.

The party is equally controversial about the Green New Deal He discussed, a resolution on the fight against climate change, which was mainly propagated by the next New York MP Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This provides a national investment program that is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2030 with some radical reforms. The name of the program alludes to Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal during the Great Depression of the 1930s. In this way, the Green New Deal also offers extensive social programs with the aim of guaranteeing “economic security” through a guarantee of employment for all Americans or access to affordable housing. Despite the exorbitant costs, all promising Democratic candidates support the plan.

There is also a great deal in Fiscal policy, almost all applicants want to withdraw the Donald Trump reform in late 2017, therefore increasing taxes. According to Democrats, Trump’s measures unilaterally favor entrepreneurs and those who earn more. The two left-wing exponents, Sanders and Warren, but also Buttigieg, also want an estate tax for the wealthiest percentage of the population.

Trump’s appointments to the Supreme Court and tightening numerous laws in Republican-ruled member states also The abortion made the theme of the electoral campaign. All democratic candidates want to participate in Roe v. Wade, from 1973, states that abortion is generally allowed until the fetus is viable. This allows for the prohibition of late abortions, which has supported Biden’s political past. The other favorites want to leave the decision to the woman at this stage of the pregnancy and want very few legal restrictions. All democratic applicants also advocate hardening the Gun lawsuch as mandatory reputation tests with every purchase of weapons.

Trump’s assassination of Iranian General Kassem Soleimani also focuses on the Foreign policy Market Stall. Almost all Democrats want the United States to join the nuclear deal with Tehran again. On the other hand, the hard line that Trump has followed with the trade war against China or the question of a rapid withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan is controversial.

In the summer, the national Party Conferences where the determined winners in the primaries are officially nominated by the delegates as candidates for the party. The Democratic Convention, which should have started on July 13, has been postponed due to the Corona pandemic and is now scheduled for August 17. The location is Milwaukee, the largest city in the important “Swing State” Wisconsin. Republicans elect Trump at his party’s convention in Charlotte, North Carolina. It begins on August 24.

Significant Third party applications They are not emerging. Independent Congresswoman Justin Amash has announced that she is investigating for the Libertarian Party. Amash hails from Michigan and was swept into Congress by the 2010 wave of tea parties. He left Republicans last summer out of disappointment with Donald Trump. Now he wants to offer conservatives an alternative to this. Third-party requests have been futile since the emergence of the modern bipartisan system in the United States, but they can always influence the outcome of the general election. In 1992, many Republicans complained that the independence of Ross Perot, President George Bush, cost reelection. Without Ralph Nader’s candidacy for the Green Party, Democrat Al Gore would likely have won the state of Florida in 2000 and thus the presidential election against George W. Bush.

Early September Intensive phase of the electoral campaign.. The first television debate between the two candidates is scheduled for the end of September, with two more scheduled for October. This month is also legendary for possible twists and turns. October surprises. Four years ago, for example, the Washington Post published recordings for the 2005 Access Hollywood show in early October, in which Trump boasted of sexually assaulting women. In late October, FBI Director James Comey also announced that he would reopen the Hillary Clinton email scandal.

Finally, presidential elections always take place on first Tuesday after November 1 instead, this year on November 3.

“Too close to call” – Almost all serious political observers and demonstrators currently consider the outcome of the November elections to be completely open. Trump setzte ganz auf die Loyalität seiner eingefleischten Anhänger und die gute Wirtschaftslage, die ihm eigentlich den Wiedereinzug ins Weisse Haus hätte sichern sollen. Doch die Corona-Pandemie wird die USA in eine tiefe Rezession stürzen und Millionen Amerikaner den Arbeitsplatz kosten. Die Beurteilung des Krisenmanagements Trumps wird wohl über seine Wiederwahl entscheiden. Biden könnte davon profitieren, dass die Amerikaner ihn gut kennen und er als Vizepräsident Obamas reichlich Erfahrung mit herausfordernden Situationen hat.