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The Federal Council decided to close almost three weeks ago. Success is now shown: the significant number of new infections through already infected (R0) has decreased significantly. This is shown in a study by the University of Bern, which was updated on Thursday.
If R0 was still 2.73 in mid-March, the value is now 0.59. Until closing, an infected person infected nearly three more. Now on average it is less than one person.
Hospital deliveries are already decreasing
This has dramatically positive effects on the spread of the disease. The horror scenes from weeks ago did not materialize. According to the University of Bern model, Switzerland has reached the peak: with almost 60 cases, the peak of daily deaths must be reached. The model now assumes a decline.
The peak in hospital deliveries had already passed in late March. The same applies to the occupation of intensive care beds. Depending on the model, the maximum should be around 600 occupied intensive care beds. If the model is correct, hospitals have already been through the most trouble.
The number of deaths is expected to increase by at least 50 percent.
The peak in the number of deaths has not been reached. According to the model, in the worst case scenario, significantly more than 2000 people will die from the coronavirus in Switzerland. Even in the best case, there would be more than 1,500 dead. In the most likely case, nearly 2,000 deaths are expected. Until now, he died in Switzerland. 944 people suffered the consequences of lung disease. Even in a favorable case, a further increase of at least 50 percent should be expected.
The model was developed by epidemiologist Christian Althaus. The first forecasts were already developed on March 24. At that time, the individual stages were still very far apart. After March 25, Althaus did not release new calculations. The reasons are unknown. The new numbers now show that reality has unfolded much more pleasantly than was feared at the time.
The trend can reverse again
After publishing the latest figures on Twitter, Althaus writes that Switzerland’s social distancing measures are apparently effective and have reduced the number of reproductions. Now the question arises, how much can the measures be relaxed as of April 26. Althaus does not make a recommendation.
However, it is clear that encouraging forecasts are based on people continuing to follow the measures and keeping social contacts to a minimum. Otherwise, the infection rate may increase again. This would result in a reversal of the trend.
The model is based on the assumption that the disease breaks out on average 5.2 days after infection. The mortality rate is 1.2 percent, about 5 percent of those infected have to go to the hospital.
Globally, the numbers are moving in the right direction. In most countries, the number of new infections has decreased, as has the number of infections. Show Johns Hopkins University. Even in the United States, the sharp increase has since been broken.
