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Russia is seeing more and more cases of people newly infected with the coronavirus. However, business and society should return to normal, a political decision.
On the day that Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the nationwide exit from the blockade, responsible authorities reported as many new infections with the new type of corona virus as ever before, around 11,600. A day later there were officially almost 800 fewer, but with an increase On Tuesday, a total of 232,243 reported cases, Russia moved to the top of European countries and ranked second among the countries most affected by the pandemic in the entire world. That Putin considers the most important phase in the fight against the epidemic that has been successfully completed at the moment is causing confusion in Russia.
Putin’s announcement should be seen primarily as a political signal. Epidemiologically, the situation is anything but reassuring. Even one of Putin’s closest employees, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov, has contracted the Sars-CoV-2 virus, as announced on Tuesday. Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and at least two other ministers are also affected.
No decline despite curfew
For six weeks, life in Russia was at least officially paralyzed. Only vital companies should continue working. The “nonworking days,” which Putin had extended twice, were a legally questionable substitute for declaring an emergency. Putin, referring to the different spread of the plague in the great country, had given the governors of the regions possibilities of implementation. So it was these who had to announce the unpleasant measures and face the serious economic effects.
In international comparison, there were strict restrictions in many places for several weeks, including in and around Moscow. However, the daily number of new infections has not decreased, on the contrary. At most, it has stabilized a bit to a very high level. In some regions, the same numbers are reported practically every day, which is not very credible. The situation in the North Caucasus is reportedly sometimes dramatic. The surprisingly low number of deaths across the country should not be correct, as suggested by initial mortality assessments.
The appeased state
Putin and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin, who had pushed the hard line in fighting the epidemic against the initial hesitation of the Kremlin, placated on Monday: The sharp rise in new infections reported daily was due to the huge expansion of capacities test and was even positive: The more infected people were identified, even those without symptoms or with weak symptoms, the better the disease could contain. In the future, employers in Moscow will even be forced to regularly test their employees. However, there are many questions about the reliability of the tests. Sobjanin says the truth is that about 2 percent of the city’s population, about 300,000 people, and not just the 120,000 or so identified are infected.
However, this also means that Russia is apparently no longer trying to contain the pandemic quickly, but that the disease is being accepted by large sections of the population. Putin only said that the past six weeks had been used to expand the health care system so that hospitals could cope with the epidemic. That had been successfully implemented. However, the heavy burden found in hospitals should not decrease. Reports from doctors and survivors do not suggest that Russia handles the treatment of the disease as well as officials say.
Disgust in the population.
It is not the case that Putin’s announcement on Monday has already lifted all restrictions in the country. Governors have to decide the schedule themselves. In and around Moscow, for example, “self-isolation” lasted until the end of May. Individual companies have resumed operations, but not most stores. This means that significantly more people are on the move again. Masks and gloves are mandatory.
Only a fraction of the regions would be truly ripe for further opening steps. But Putin’s appearance unleashed a dynamic that made it even more difficult for officials applying stricter measures to continue to apply the restrictions. However, they are responsible for the consequences. In many places, citizen discipline had already weakened. They do not feel that they are sufficiently backed by the state.
Therefore, Putin’s announcements are mainly political: the Kremlin wants to return to daily life as quickly as possible. The economic price is too high. Above all, the vote on the postponed constitutional changes due to the epidemic must be rescheduled by July at the latest. The lower confidence in Putin and the resentment of citizens for the partly disastrous economic effects of exit restrictions are inconvenient, after all, the president improved on Monday with new payments to families with children and companies. However, the Kremlin will not be able to forget neither the epidemic that has not been overcome, nor the serious economic crisis and unconvincing actions.