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The Federal Council is taking action: Restaurants will close at 7pm on Saturday. Image: keystone
The Federal Council wants to close restaurants at 7 pm, this is how epidemiologists assess the risk
In restaurants, people laugh, talk, and sit together for a long time, even in crown times. With a super diffuser, the place can become a risk. According to American researchers, restaurants play an important role in increasing infection rates.
Many consider closing restaurants completely or at least reducing their opening hours to be an effective means of preventing the spread of the coronavirus. In western Switzerland, especially in Vaud, restaurant closures are cited as one of the reasons for the rapid improvement in the number of infections. The Federal Council has now decided to close restaurants at 7 pm But on what scientific basis are these closures and restrictions based? There are only a few studies around the world that have seriously addressed the contagion potential of catering establishments. The study situation is scarce.
Did you miss the news yesterday? Here is the overview:
A British government measure provides a clue, but it went in exactly the opposite direction. Rather than closing restaurants, the Johnson administration asked people to eat out in the summer to prevent restaurants from going bankrupt. The British were reimbursed half the cost of food and soft drinks.
According to a British study from the University of Warwick that has not yet been tested or published, this had consequences. Not only did the British gladly accept the government’s generous offer, but they also spread the corona virus faster and more intensely thanks to increased restaurant visits. The study authors estimated that 8 to 17 percent of local outbreaks of infection were caused by dining out.
Restaurants, gyms and religious institutions play an important role
More reliable statements can be made based on a study from the renowned Stanford University. Using the mobile data of 98 million people in the United States, the research group examined the frequency of infections in public places. This study also confirms what was expected: places that are often visited longer and where people are together are at higher risk. The Stanford model predicts that infections in places like restaurants, gyms, and religious institutions will play a disproportionate role in increasing infection rates.
Researchers from the US note that most coronavirus infections are likely to occur in superprocessor locations, in addition to gyms and cafes, therefore also in restaurants. This study does not answer to what extent direct infections by droplets, generally the most common type of transmission, aerosols or contaminated surfaces are involved in the transmission of the virus. The only certainty is that if people are together for a long time, do not wear a mask, approach, talk and possibly even laugh, the risk of contagion is greater. So exactly the situation of the restaurant.
In restaurants, people laugh, talk and sit together for a long time. Image: keystone
A study with the participation of Merkel’s epidemiologist and advisor Christian Drosten already established the thesis of the super diffuser in a Berlin nightclub in spring. 74 people were infected there in a short time, especially the staff. According to the German study authors, this confirms the potential for superprocessor events. Because not all people are equally contagious. Super diffusers in the disco or in a restaurant make these places a risk zone.
700 US epidemiologists see restaurants as the greatest risk
The “New York Times” questioned 700 epidemiologists. They declared on the one hand that they would only change their behavior again when 70 percent of the population was vaccinated and, on the other hand, what activities they consider to be the highest risk. The visit to the restaurant took place upstairs. Followed by attending weddings and funerals and thirdly attending a sporting event, concert or theater.
But even the 700 epidemiologists were not completely sure of the risk assessment of the various activities. The only unanimous agreement from the researchers who, according to their own statement, were very cautious in their own lives was that indoor events with many people are the most risky.
Warnings were given in the summer
The infectologists and epidemiologists already warned in summer that more infections are expected again in winter, because people spend more time in closed rooms. As of yet, there is no reliable data on where exactly people get infected. According to cantonal contact trackers’ assessments, family is mentioned as the most common main infection site, but this explanation falls short because the virus has to find its way first. Work and private gatherings are seen as great drivers, and clubs, bars, and restaurants will soon follow.
More discipline in the restaurant than at home
Therefore, the risk of going to a restaurant cannot be determined exactly. It is not known how many infections can be traced in restaurants and how well protection concepts prevent them. This depends on various factors such as ventilation and last but not least the discipline of the guests. However, this is higher in the restaurant than when people meet privately and unobserved.
So you can’t tell if restaurant closings and early 7pm closings are the correct means. From a purely epidemiological point of view, without taking into account social and economic aspects, they make sense because, in general, preventing contact with other human beings avoids the risk of infection. Whether at work, at home or in a restaurant.
In any case, the restrictions are doubly unpopular: with restaurants, because their survival is endangered, with guests, who are deprived of a pleasure, of which there are no longer many.
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