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The canton of Zurich has introduced a mask requirement for shops, the surrounding cantons have not. The NZZ has analyzed the effects of this “experiment”. Foreign countries can also learn from him.
Zurich consumers do not allow the mask requirement to spoil their purchases.
The question of masks has warmed hearts since the beginning of the corona pandemic. Some see the mask requirement as a central component of health protection, others see it as an annoying state guardianship.
Great fears
There is also a lot at stake economically. There are repeated complaints from the business world that the uncomfortable wearing of masks prevents people from buying.
The introduction of a mask requirement for shops in the canton of Zurich was recently met with much criticism. The retail association Swiss Retail warned that small stores, in particular, would have to expect a 10-30% drop in turnover and frequency. Similar fears exist abroad. In Austria, a stricter mask requirement went into effect last Monday, and the trade association there expects sales to fall by 15%.
But how does the mask requirement affect stores? To this end, NZZ has evaluated so-called real-time data. It is the first systematic analysis for Switzerland, and probably the whole world. The results show that the retail trade suffers somewhat from the mask requirement, but the effects are not severe.
Real-time data provides insights
Real-time data from the Swiss Consumption Monitoring project serves as the basis for the analysis. A team led by economists from the University of St. Gallen has been collecting available data on a daily basis on how much Swiss people use bank cards in stores since the beginning of the Corona crisis.
In this way, it is possible to measure how often people from the canton of Zurich went to the shops before and after the introduction of the mask requirement and how much money they spent on doing so. The development can also be compared to neighboring regions where no mask requirement has been introduced, namely Eastern Switzerland (cantons of St. Gallen, Thurgau, Appenzell Innerrhoden and Ausserrhoden, Glarus, Schaffhausen and Graubünden) and Central Switzerland ( Zug, Schwyz, Lucerne, Obwalden, Nidwalden and Uri).
Important comparison of regions
This comparison between regions is important because experience shows that purchasing behavior fluctuates considerably. It rained the weekend after the introduction of the Zurich mask requirement, which tends to drive people to stores. But it was also raining in the other regions. The influence of the mask requirement can be filtered from the comparison.
The mask requirement for stores in the canton of Zurich came into effect on Thursday, August 27. In the analysis, the ten days before and ten days after this reference date are considered. A distinction is also made between grocery stores and other retailers. Supermarkets with everyday items may be affected differently than, for example, bookstores or jewelry stores.
The influx of customers is decreasing slightly
The evaluations show: The number of visits to grocery stores decreased slightly as a result of the requirement for masks. In the ten days after launch, Zurich supermarkets recorded an average of around 20,000 fewer card transactions per day than before, a decrease of around 6%. By contrast, frequencies in supermarkets in eastern and central Switzerland hardly changed.
A slightly different picture emerges with the other retailers. Visits did not decrease in the canton of Zurich. That may be due to the mentioned rainy weekend. Therefore, a comparison with the other regions is instructive. More clients were received there. The difference is between 4% (Central Switzerland) and 7% (Eastern Switzerland).
Overall, these figures suggest that a mask requirement will reduce the number of customers by around 5% in the short term.
Sales buffer
What about sales? For grocery stores, it can be seen that slightly higher sales were achieved in the canton of Zurich despite the lower number of visitors. This trend is confirmed by representatives of the industry. Upon request, the Federation of Migros Cooperatives in Zurich said customers tend to go to branches less often, but instead make larger purchases.
However, supermarkets in central and eastern Switzerland sold even more, that is, 2 and 5 percentage points more than in Zurich. The mask requirement also appears to have a slightly dampening effect on sales.
This is also confirmed by the other retailers. Although sales in Zurich’s fashion, flower and bookstores increased after the introduction of the mask requirement, they did so even more in the other regions. This may also reflect some consumer avoidance in the cantons without a mask requirement. The differences in sales are 5% (Central Switzerland) to 9% (Eastern Switzerland).
Overall, these results indicate that a mask requirement also depresses sales by around 5% in the short term.
Possible habituation
Introducing a mask requirement seems to really change people’s buying behavior. However, the losses to companies are much lower than the worrying estimates given by some industry associations suggest.
However, some questions remain open. Stores directly on the border with an area without the mask requirement may suffer more than stores in the center of the canton of Zurich. On the contrary, clients’ reluctance can evaporate after a certain time as they become accustomed to wearing a mask.
Learning from federalism
Internationally, there is still little reliable information on such relationships. In the research literature, there does not appear to be any research on the question of how the mask requirement affects frequencies and in-store sales.
The closest is a scientific analysis for Germany, which shows that the phased introduction of a mask requirement in the federal states did not change the mobility behavior of the population. In the US, for example, they investigated how different closure measures in individual states affected the economy.
This shows one of the strengths of Swiss federalism. The fact that cantons may act differently allows for small-scale experiments. This generates innovation and valuable knowledge. Politicians and citizens can learn from these experiences when faced with the corona pandemic, in Switzerland and abroad.
The mandatory masks for shops do not seem to be especially harmful from an economic point of view. Whether it will do much to protect health is another question.
