[ad_1]
He has a lot to do at the moment: a test center in Yverdons-les-Bains. Image: keystone
Case numbers are back as high as in the spring, but why is panic misplaced?
The Federal Office of Public Health today reported over 1,000 new infections. This brings them closer to the record numbers for March. But if you look at all the indicators, the current situation is very different.
1,464 people tested positive for Sars-CoV-2 on March 23, 2020; never in Switzerland was it reported that more people were recently infected than at that time. The record number could drop soon. Because the number of corona cases has increased considerably for days.
1,077 new infections have been reported in the last 24 hours. For the past On Monday, October 5, 2020, the BAG registered 990 people who tested positive – In the next few days there could be even a few more. As a result, as many tested positive on Monday as they did during spring rush hours.
Those who tested positive per day in Switzerland
But only new lab-confirmed infections not a complete picture of the situation. The strict measures of the spring were put in place mainly so that Swiss hospitals did not reach their limits and therefore allow all patients with and without crown to receive the treatment they need.
The curve of hospitalizations compared to new infections is presented. but now clearly different than in spring. There is a slight increase compared to June, when the number of cases dropped to zero. However, with an average of ten hospitalizations per day, the situation is not (yet) comparable to that of March. There, more than 200 patients were taken to the hospital every day.
New hospitalizations per day in Switzerland
Why are the numbers still so low?
“Right now, the pandemic in Switzerland is mainly occurring in a younger age group. In the first wave it was different ”, says to Watson Philipp Jent, senior doctor of the University Clinic of Infectious Diseases in Inselspital Bern. Older people are more likely to be hospitalized than younger people. At Inselspital, one of the largest hospitals in Switzerland, according to Jent, “between five and ten people” are in hospital because of Corona.
It is currently not foreseeable that hospitals will reach their limits due to Corona. “The Inselspital Group is prepared for an increase in the number of patients through various measures such as the reservation of intensive care units and ward beds, expansion of testing capacity, storage of protective material, etc.”, Jent continues.
Another important indicator is the Deceased. They also fell almost to zero in the summer months. The curve has increased slightly since September, but the outlook is not the same as in April.
Yet deaths do occur – even more extreme than hospitalizations – partially delayed. In recent days, people already listed in current statistics have tested positive. However, it may take a few days or weeks for one of these patients to die after a serious illness. Therefore, the chart below on the dead must be followed carefully. “If the number of cases continues to rise, more deaths can be expected,” said Bernese cantonal doctor Barbara Grützmacher on Wednesday.
Deaths in Switzerland
Another important factor is that Test volume. The number of cases for March cannot be compared to each other because significantly fewer tests were performed at that time. Young, healthy people with typical corona symptoms were unable to be tested early in the pandemic, instead having to isolate themselves without a test result. The number of unreported cases during this time is assumed to be significantly higher than it is now.
Test volume, in turn, also affects Positivitätsrate outside. First of all, it is an indication of how visible the development of the pandemic is. If it’s below 5 percent, as the World Health Organization recommends, the movements of the virus are largely traceable.
If the positive rate is above this 5 percent, as is currently the case in Switzerland, the number of unreported cases also increases. Plus it will It is more difficult to measure how fast the virus is spreading..
Tests performed and positive rate
The fact that more people have been tested also has to do with the fact that the tests have been free since July (indicated by the peak in the top graph in early July). Increased test volume also leads to more asymptomatic infected people being found. In other words, those who tested positive and showed no symptoms.
This includes, for example, people from risk groups who have been notified through contact tracing or those who return from vacation that they are employed in the health system and can therefore be evaluated without symptoms. However, the FOPH does not have information on everyone who tested positive as to whether or what symptoms the person has.
For the group of positively infected people for whom any symptoms were registered, the following image emerges: Currently they show little 10 percent of those who tested positive had no symptoms.. At the end of May it was more than a third.
Proportion of those who tested positive without symptoms
What is the end result? You can determine what phase the pandemic is in never read from a single statistic. Only when you look at different aspects can you get a more complete picture. And this clearly shows today that the high number of cases alone is not cause for panic.
The remaining Hygiene and distance rules but they remain paramount so that hospital occupancy and deaths remain so low this coming winter.
