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A soldier undergoes fever control during the mobilization in the canton of Geneva; since this week your company is supporting the health authorities. Image: keystone
Two weeks after the new measures: Corona continues to rise in these cantons
At the end of October, the Federal Council followed up on national measures. Two weeks have passed, after which an effect should be noticeable. In some cantons, the figures also give hope, but not everywhere.
Since October 29, 2020, the Federal Council has recommended working from home and meeting fewer people. It is also mandatory to wear a mask where distance cannot be maintained. Events with more than 50 people are prohibited; Only a maximum of 10 people are allowed to meet privately.
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According to the BAG, it takes between 10 and 14 days for the new measures to affect the number of cases. These have already passed, and growth has slowed down a bit. Trend curve points down for the first time since November 4 (late registrations are expected for the last days, so the trend curve ends on November 5).
Number of cases in Switzerland with a trend curve
However, there was seldom talk of a national collapse of the health system, rather attempts were made to avoid regional bottlenecks. And so far this has only been partially successful.
Health care utilization
He lied earlier this week 466 patients with Covid in Swiss intensive care units. In addition, there were 335 other people who depend on an IPS bed for other reasons. There are still 221 beds available.
Use of all Swiss intensive care beds
An 80 percent occupancy rate in Switzerland is not unusual. However, regional bottlenecks could not be completely avoided. Capacity has already had to be expanded in several hospitals, yesterday in the hospitals of the cantons of Aarau and Baden.
IPS beds in western Switzerland and Graubünden are the most used in percentage terms.
The highest utilization:
- Jura: 7 of 8 beds in use
- Freiburg: 25 of 29 beds in use
- Valais: 30 out of 35 beds in use
- Graubünden: 17 out of 20 beds in use
- Solothurn: 21 of 25 beds in use
The situation in eastern Switzerland and in the canton of Basel-Land is more relaxed.
Lowest occupancy
- Appenzell Ausserrhoden: 2 of 6 beds in use
- Basel-Land: 7 out of 20 beds in use
- Uri: 3 of 6 beds in use
- Nidwalden: 3 of 6 beds in use
- Ticino: 38 of 67 beds in use
Even if the number of cases is no longer increasing exponentially: The situation in intensive care units is unlikely to ease overnight due to delayed hospitalizations.
Consequently, the forecast of an ETH research group predicts a greater number of IPS beds required in seven days for the cantons of Glarus, Neuchâtel and Wallis than are currently available in the cantons.
Regional contagion hot spots
In many cantons, recent developments are cautiously optimistic despite the very high level. However, this is not the case in French-speaking Switzerland. The virus is still spreading very rapidly there, although measures throughout western Switzerland go beyond federal requirements.
For example, restaurants and bars are closed in all French-speaking cantons. This also has an effect on movement data: the mobility curve for French-speaking people in Switzerland (yellow line) has clearly been pointing downwards in recent weeks and is currently lower than the curves for Swiss-speaking people. German and Ticino.
Movement data by language region
Image: intervista / kt zurich
The canton of Geneva, in particular, introduced the strict measures – a maximum of 100 people for events and the closure of restaurants – in July and August. It is not clear why this does not have a greater impact on hospitalizations and deaths. For example, Antoine Flahault, director of the University of Geneva, said: “It is difficult to say why Geneva has so many cases than Basel, for example. Honestly, I don’t know. “
Possible explanations are the high population density in Geneva and the many international organizations that increase travel.
More on the difficult situation in western Switzerland:
Spread of the pandemic
In order to track the movements of a pandemic, it is important to have a low positivity rate. Switzerland clearly exceeds the 5 percent recommended by the WHO.
The cantons of western Switzerland currently have the highest positivity rates. In Freiburg and Neuchâtel, almost one out of every two tests is currently positive.
Higher positivity rate
- Freiburg: 44.89 percent
- Neuchâtel: 43.67 percent
- Gin: 38.66 percent
- Jura: 38.6 percent
- Valais: 38.03 percent
These cantons have the development of the pandemic better under control (although all are well above the recommended limit of 5 percent):
Lower positivity rate
- Basel-Stadt: 14.89 percent
- Basel-Land: 16.27 percent
- Train: 18.03 percent
- Zurich: 19.39 percent
- Schaffhausen: 20.26 percent
This map also clearly shows that western Switzerland is struggling:
In the summer months, most cantons were able to keep the positivity rate below 5 percent. From July onwards, Freiburg and Geneva struggled to keep the quota low. Together with Neuchâtel, they now occupy the top three places.
The national average exceeded the 5 percent limit in early October. After all, the new measures in late October meant that the average positivity rate stalled at around 26 percent.
