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How long can contact tracing be kept? Image: keystone
Contact trackers on the edge: cantons really need so much staff
Daily corona tests are increasing and with them the number of cases in Switzerland. How long can contact tracing teams withstand the flood of new infections? We did the math.
On Tuesday morning, the canton of Vaud sounded the alarm: the hospitalization rate in the canton is increasing again, the elderly are again increasingly affected. The canton registered 1,668 new infections in the last two weeks, an average of 119 per day. The canton of Vaud is now responsible for around a third of all new infections in Switzerland.
The positivity rate of the corona test is also high in the canton of Vaud, more than seven percent. For comparison: in Zurich, the positivity rate is less than three percent.
Average number of new infections each day for the past two weeks
The growing number makes contact tracing a big challenge. Not only in Vaud, but also in other cantons. As the “Tagesanzeiger” reported, infected people sometimes have to wait days before being contacted.
At the beginning of the pandemic in the spring, Daniel Koch said that with more than 100 new infections a day it would be difficult to trace contacts. This limit has been exceeded for a long time. The cantons now seem to be better prepared. The teams have expanded; 250 plotters with 100 full-time positions each work in Zurich.
However, the question arises: How much longer will it work?
20 to 40 hours per crown box
To answer this question, some variables must be set. First the Spending timethat comes up in contact tracing for each person who tested positive and their environment.
The canton of Bern quantifies this on its website 20 to 40 hours. So we take 30 hours for the calculation. During this time you have to find an average of 20 people.
We go further than one 8.4 hours daily working time and has the Number of full-time positions for tracers, not the absolute number of tracers.
An example of calculation: in the canton Zürich in the last two weeks, an average of 68 cases were reported per day. Each case means 30 hours of work. So 2040 hours, or 242 business days. In theory, 242 full-time tracers would be needed in the canton of Zurich to cope with the new infections. There are 100.
For the top 5 cantons in terms of new infections, it looks like this:
One person icon = 10 contact markers. In Bern it would take 90. In Zurich 242. image: fehr challenge
In theory, the canton of Vaud would need 420 contact trackers working every day to deal with the current number of cases. The canton is currently working with many tracers that are unknown.
In the other cantons, however, it is quite known how many contact trackers are working. And there are very few everywhere. Theoretically. Because when asked, it always means that you are asked, but the number of cases is still manageable.
It is not clear how exactly this works. Some cantons, for example Basel, have started to cut back on follow-up care for those who return home. Some people cannot be reached in time and are therefore completely off the list.
As the “Tagesanzeiger” also reports, sick people are sometimes asked to inform their contact persons themselves and to quarantine them.
It is unclear how long contact tracing can be maintained. Federal Councilor Alain Berset definitely doesn’t want to give up. In an interview with the “SonntagsZeitung” he said: “No matter what happens, no matter how high the number of cases is: we will carry out contact tracing until the end of the crisis”.
