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The number of reproductions in Germany is increasing: what can be derived from it, and what cannot
In Germany there has been more enthusiasm for a possible second wave since the weekend. Because the number of views increased again to 1. What does that mean?
The German institute Robert Koch has repeatedly emphasized in recent weeks: to flatten the crown epidemic, the number of reproductions must be kept below 1. This R number shows how many people infect an infected person on average. If it is below 1, less than one person is infected; the number of cases decreases. If you stand on it, the cases increase.
Let’s look at the R number in Germany from March 6:
Reproduction number for Germany:
source: Robert Koch Institute
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Development shows: Since March 22, R has practically always been below the magic limit of 1. But: In the last two days it increased to 1.10, then to 1.13 on Sunday.
Panicking now would be wrong. There are some important points to keep in mind. as the RKI writes:
- It is an estimate, therefore there is always uncertainty.
- Due to the small number of cases, the fluctuations are currently greater.
- Therefore, it cannot be assessed whether the downward trend has continued for the past few weeks or not.
- The number of reproductions cannot be considered as a measure of the effectiveness or necessity of the measures alone. The number of new infections every day and the severity of illness are also important.
- The value refers to infections that occurred some time ago. For methodological reasons, this cannot be done in any other way. For example, Sunday’s 1.13 shows the status on May 6.
What the increase means in any case according to the RKI is: “The increase in the estimated R value makes it necessary to watch development very carefully in the coming days.”
New daily infections briefly again more than 1000
From May 6 to 8, more than 1,000 new infections were reported over three days in a row, further fueling uncertainty. In the end, however, this value fell back below 1000. Here you can also see that there may be fluctuations, especially over the weekend as there are generally fewer reports.
New daily infections in Germany
Chancellor Angela Merkel announced Wednesday that further relaxation will take effect on May 11. Among other things, stores and restaurants can open with protection concepts. We will not know how these relief effects in the development of the number of cases in 10 to 14 days at least.
Germany took the first step of relaxation on April 20. At that time, the reopening of small and medium-sized stores was allowed.
The summary of the situation in Switzerland:
What you need to know about the corona virus:
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