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This is how your canton performs on the intended traffic light system
It is quite possible that the number of cases and other indicators in Switzerland will soon determine the measures to be taken in a canton. These four maps show you how your canton compares.
On Monday, Federal Councilor Alain Berset and Lukas Engelberger, chairman of the Cantonal Health Directors Conference, expressed concern. The situation is serious and worrying. The result: the Federal Council will decide on new measures on Friday.
>> Coronavirus: All the news in the live ticker
According to an investigation by CH-Media, a system of traffic lights is projected that will impose certain restrictions depending on the epidemiological development of a canton. Neighboring countries like Germany have known about this system for some time.
More about the Federal Council’s plans:
Specifically, there are three levels of escalation. While the former will only temporarily close the catering and leisure businesses, level three would mean the closure of all businesses and services that are not of systemic importance.
The Federal Council wants the level of escalation to depend on four different indicators: the incidence of 14 days, the reproductive value, the positivity rate and the use of the health system. This is how it currently looks with the cantons regarding these factors:
14 day incidence
An important parameter is the incidence of 14 days. It indicates how many people for every 100,000 inhabitants of a canton have tested positive for the virus in the last 14 days. This indicator is also used in the preparation of travel destinations that are subject to quarantine.
Possible guide values:
At this time it is not determined what range of values should lead to what level of escalation. Last week, Berne epidemiologist Christian Althaus challenged a limit of 60 confirmed cases per 100,000 residents.
In spring, the same value was applied as the maximum value for the countries of travel, so the quarantine was not necessary when returning to Switzerland. All the cantons themselves are now significantly higher. The lowest is Jura with 315 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and the highest is St. Gallen with 843.
Reproduktionswert
The effective reproduction number R indicates how many other people are infected with SARS-CoV2. It is based on (reliable) case numbers (last days are excluded due to expected late registrations) and therefore describes the situation about 10 days ago.
Possible guide values:
Also in this case it is not clear what value the Federal Council wants to use. However, in the long term, the number of reproductions must definitely drop below 1 for the virus to disappear. Currently, only the 7 cantons of Jura, Neuchâtel, Geneva, Obwalden, Waadt, Wallis and Friborg meet this objective.
Positivitätsrate
The Federal Office of Public Health publishes daily for each canton separately how many of the tests carried out were positive. On the most reliable seven-day average, the situation was particularly worrying in the canton of Uri: the positivity rate has risen significantly since early December and more recently exceeded 41 percent.
Possible guide values:
The World Health Organization recommends a positivity rate of less than 5 percent. Many foreign countries also have a similar limit when determining which countries of travel are subject to quarantine or with their traffic light systems.
No canton in Switzerland is currently below this limit. Geneva currently has the lowest rate and therefore the most reliable overview of the spread of the virus, with a positivity rate of 9.9 percent. The Federal Council will still have to decide what value will lead to what level of escalation.
Health care utilization
The indicator relating to the use of the health system will be much discussed. Possible factors could be free beds in the intensive or acute care unit or the availability of staff. The numbers of beds available in intensive care units from icumonitoring.ch, a platform operated by ETH, give a good idea.
Possible guide values:
The specific goal will be to have a yet to be determined number of free beds available for emergency patients, both those with Covid-19 as well as accident victims and patients after major operations. This is not currently the case in the canton of Zug, for example: according to ETH, all seven beds are occupied, four of them with Covid-19 patients.
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