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Rapid tests are also being used now. Image: keystone
Is Switzerland testing too little? 5 questions and answers about the current situation of the crown
Are we over the hill in hospitalizations? And why are new infections falling so much faster in French-speaking Switzerland? Switzerland has the second crown wave under control. We go over five questions about the current situation.
The number of new infections continues to decline in Switzerland. On Monday, the FOPH reported 9,751 cases during the last three days (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), that is, about 3,250 per day. The last time new infections were this low on October 20, in 3008.
BAG Director Anne Lévy spoke of a “turnaround” over the weekend. “I am sure that we are currently heading in the right direction,” Lévy told the “hearing on Sunday”. He also claimed that when it comes to the death rate, they are not doing much worse than abroad.
Is Lévy right about the death toll? And can we really talk about a change in trend? Or is the number of cases so low because we don’t test enough?
Five questions and answers about the latest developments in Switzerland:
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Are we over the hill in hospitalizations?
On November 2, the previous record was reached with 287 people in one day, never before have so many Covid-19 patients been hospitalized in 24 hours. The next day, the 7-day average was 231, also a high.
Since then, fewer and fewer patients have been admitted to the hospital. On November 18, the 7-day average was still 154. The trend is clearly downward here.
However, this graph does not show how many people are currently hospitalized in total. The number of cases is also increasing slightly in some cantons. In particular, with regional bottlenecks, you definitely shouldn’t be on the mountain yet – However, the view of the Swiss situation as a whole is optimistic..
Evolution of daily hospitalizations in Switzerland
While acute beds were rare in virtually no second wave canton, the situation is different for intensive care units. Here and there patients had to be transferred to other hospitals due to lack of space.
Across Switzerland, the increase in Covid patients in intensive care units has slowed in the last three weeks, and the number of patients in intensive care units has now stabilized. On Monday, 533 of the 1,135 intensive care beds in Switzerland were occupied with Covid 19 patients. There are also 336 additional intensive care patients without Covid. This results in a 77 percent utilization.
Please note: Unlike the chart above, this one does not show the day New patients admitted to IPS, but all patients on a certain day they were in an IPS.
Intensive care bed occupancy in Switzerland
Attention: late registrations may occur during the last days.
Are we on the mountain here? The Swiss Society of Intensive Care Medicine stated in a press release on November 17: “Until now, it has been possible to prevent this usual bed capacity from being overloaded mainly because non-urgent interventions and treatments have been postponed in many places.” .
When asked about the current situation, the media office referred to the next statement, which is expected to appear on Thursday.
Is Switzerland testing too little?
On peak days in late October, more than 35,000 people were tested for the corona virus in Switzerland. On weekdays last week it was still around 25,000.
Over and over again you hear about overloaded test centers. It is also frequently the case that doctors advise against potential corona-infected people with no or mild symptoms not to get tested. How often it is difficult to understand.
But the Federal Office of Public Health is concerned about this development. He doesn’t want to know anything about overloaded systems: “There is sufficient testing capacity, so all people with symptoms should be tested,” Virginie Masserey, head of the Infection Control Section at FOPH, told a conference on press last week.
The FOPH obviously perceives the tests that are currently being conducted as too little. To help more people get tested again, the FOPH has launched a communication campaign calling for tests to be done for minor symptoms.
Compared to other countries
By the way, we tested roughly the same per capita amount as our neighboring Germany, although testing in Germany has also dropped somewhat recently. There is currently no decrease in Austria.
Tests carried out weekly per 100,000 inhabitants
Note: The date indicated is Monday of the corresponding week. Watson
That applies in your canton
Is the positivity rate dropping?
In the last four weeks, the positivity rate in Switzerland has decreased. We went from a 7-day average of over 25 percent to just over 20 percent today, with the last few days showing a value of less than 20 percent. Therefore, the 7-day average should continue to fall in the coming days.
In 17 cantons, both the number of tests and the proportion of positive tests decreased compared to the previous week. The FOPH wrote in its weekly report: “This could be an indication of a decrease in the circulation of the virus in week 46 [entspricht dem Zeitraum 9. – 15. November, a.d.R.] be in these cantons. However, reporting delays and unreported results of new rapid antigen tests make it difficult to assess this development. “
The World Health Organization recommends a positivity rate of no more than 5 percent in order to understand the movements of the virus. We are still a long way from that in Switzerland. but the trend of the last days is correct.
For comparison: the positivity rate in Germany is significantly lower
In some states in the US, the positivity rate is currently moving in other areas:
Why is the number of cases in Basel-Stadt increasing now?
In the second wave, the canton of Basel-Stadt was one of the cantons with the lowest number of cases per 100,000 inhabitants. In recent days, however, these have risen and still tend to point to the upside, while the numbers in other cantons are falling again.
7-day average of new daily infections per 100,000 inhabitants since 1 September in the cantons of Basel-Stadt, Vaud and Zurich
In terms of incidence per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 14 days, Basel-Stadt has the 11th highest number in a comparison of cantons: 722. That is still less than half that, for example, the most affected Geneva (1594), but here too Basel was at the lower end for a long time.
In addition to the number of cases, hospitalizations and the number of patients in intensive care units are also increasing in Basel-Stadt.
The question is why?
For a long time, Basel-Stadt had few additional regulations on federal measures. Now you have reacted. From November 23, the following applies: restaurants closed, various sports facilities closed and a maximum of 15 people for an event. Thomas Steffen, Cantonal Basel-Stadt Doctor, said at Friday’s press conference: “We had a favorable situation in Basel for weeks and months compared to Swiss stocks. But now the Basel numbers continue to rise, although the Swiss numbers are falling. “
Basel-Stadt canton doctor Thomas Steffen explained the situation in Basel on Friday. Image: keystone
However, it is not that simple. For example, Basel-Stadt introduced the mandatory masks from the beginning. Steffen does not want to emphasize why the numbers are increasing now: ‘I cannot say which measures have what effects. Science will probably be able to explain it more easily in a few years. “In other words: There is no easy answerwhy the numbers in Basel are increasing now.
The cantons of Basel-Landschaft and Obwalden recently reported an increase in the number of cases.
How fast is the situation improving in French-speaking Switzerland?
In French-speaking Switzerland, the number of cases increased rapidly since October. Therefore, the cantons decided before German-speaking Switzerland and, in some cases, practically blocked themselves.
Since November 1, the number of new infections every day has decreased again in all the cantons of western Switzerland. However, infections are still higher than in the rest of Switzerland.
However: on an average of 7 days, new daily infections in the last three weeks were roughly halved in all cantons of western Switzerland, with the exception of Vaud, and the trend continues to point downward.
The decisive factor is the number of reproductions, the so-called R-value: on average, an infected person in French-speaking Switzerland is currently less infected than another. Across Switzerland, the R-value is currently 0.79.
7-day average of new infections per 100,000 population since September 1 in French-speaking Switzerland
Let’s take a look at some of the German-speaking cantons to compare them. As already mentioned in point 1, the curve in Basel-Stadt continues to point upwards, as in the canton of Obwalden.
The other cantons were also able to reduce the number of cases by an average of 7 days, but not to the same extent as in French-speaking Switzerland. It should be noted that the number of infections per 100,000 in the German-speaking cantons also remained well below the figures for French-speaking Switzerland.
