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Good news shortly after Christmas: on Monday the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG) reported a replay value of just 0.86. That means: 100 people infected with corona infect only 86 people. Therefore, the R-value is close to the target of less than 0.8, which would mean halving the number of cases every two weeks.
Therefore, the number of reproductions is also below the value of 1 as one of the various indicators that allow relaxation. However, the population cannot expect a rapid improvement, because the general situation is still too uncertain.
R-value subsequently corrected
Also, the question arises: What is the good R-value? As a “Tages-Anzeiger” report shows, the R-value calculated by ETH was subsequently corrected significantly downward.
In the days before the partial closure with restaurant closings ordered by the Federal Council, the last available R value, that of December 4, was 1.13 according to the calculations of the researchers responsible for ETH. This would have doubled the number of cases in a month.
But according to the “Tages-Anzeiger”, ETH had to repeatedly revise the R-value downward. According to the latest calculations, on December 4 it was only 1. instead of 1.13, which means that even then Switzerland was on the verge of halting the exponential growth in the number of cases.
However, because it takes up to 10 days from infection to first symptoms to positive corona test, the R-value can only be estimated with a long delay. Therefore, upward and downward corrections are also possible. The most recent R-value of 0.86 is most likely underestimated due to holidays; fewer cases will be detected due to fewer tests.
The fluctuations and subsequent corrections are particularly delicate because the crown policy is also based, but not only, on the R-value when it comes to tightening or relaxing.
Cantons overdue reports
But it’s not just the R-value that’s missing. The Keystone-SDA news agency reports that data from the cantons, for example on hospitalizations or deaths, arriving too late or missing, makes it difficult to fight the corona pandemic in Switzerland.
This delay has become evident in the last three months: in the first four weeks of October, when the situation in Switzerland deteriorated dramatically, the FOPH reported only half of hospital admissions per week that were officially confirmed later. In early November, the reporting situation changed: Since then, the number of BAG hospitalizations has exceeded actual hospital admissions published later by as much as 200 per week in some cases.
For deaths, the actual figures in October and November per week were up to 100 percent higher than the cases reported by the BAG. Since the beginning of December, the BAG numbers have returned to the fore.
“If we had more data, especially in real time, we would have more information on the current course of the pandemic,” the agency anonymously quotes an expert who is familiar with the matter. In fact, doctors and hospitals must report information on hospitalized people based on clinical findings to FOPH within 24 hours. Obviously, that doesn’t always work.
As unpleasant as the delay in reporting is that the researchers do not have access to the cantons’ contact tracing data. However, these would be particularly useful in complementing the findings on infection sites from international studies with real-time Swiss data.
According to ETH professor and scientific working group member Sebastian Bonhoeffer, the problem is that data is not recorded or transmitted in a uniform way. Immediately after the first wave, the researchers called for a national system. But the cantons could not agree on this and instead developed a joint questionnaire as a minimal solution. But this data exchange does not work comprehensively either.
Press conference at 2 pm
To what extent the R-value is really a benchmark for policy measures and how they affect reporting delays, federal experts will be able to answer this Tuesday at a press conference.
The following professionals participate:
- Patrick Mathys, Head of the Crisis Management and International Cooperation Section of the Federal Office of Public Health
- Martin Ackermann, President of Corona Scientific Task Force
- Raynald Droz, Brigadier and Chief of Staff of Army Command Operations
- Linda Nartey, Cantonal Doctor of Bern and Vice President of the Cantonal Medical Association
The press conference begins at 2 pm VIEW LIVE REPORTS.
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