Corona case numbers – replay value remains an important indicator – despite criticism – News



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One of the important terms in this pandemic is the R-value: the reproduction number. Indicates how many people an infected person infects on average. The Federal Council uses it to tighten or relax measures.

If it is 1, each infected person infects another person on average. Therefore, the number of infected remains constant. If the value is below 1, the margin is contained. But the R value is an estimate based on numbers of cases.

The breeding number is a fundamental aspect of an epidemic.

However, it is an important indicator of the infection rate, Martin Ackermann, head of the task force, said at the BAG press conference on Tuesday. ‘The reproduction number is a fundamental aspect of an epidemic. Describe how many new infections occur per infected person. This is something that actually exists, but that we cannot directly measure. We can estimate that, for example, based on the positive tests that are reported. “

“Without automation”

In December, the task force assumed an R-value of 1.13, measured on December 3, and requested action. Today, however, the R-value for the same day is 1.04. Therefore, the value is adjusted regularly. So the question arises: Isn’t the R-value too heavy when it comes to measures like restaurant closings?

“Of course, we appreciate it when quantitative aspects are taken into account when making decisions,” says Ackermann. “But from our point of view it is very important that such values, for example the number of reproductions, are never included in automatic decisions.”

The bottom line: the R-value is still an important value, despite subsequent adjustments. But it is also clear that the number of new infections or the occupancy rate in hospitals play an equally important role when it comes to new measures.

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