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Israel became the first country to impose a second blockade. For the moment successfully, the measures are already relaxing again. How Switzerland could benefit from the findings.
Israel announced the second blockade on September 18. Since then, the numbers have fallen again and the first relaxation has been taking place for a week.
Photo: Abir Sultan (Keystone via EPA)
As the world’s first country, Israel had a second in mid-September statewide lockdown tax. By the end of September, the number of infections had reached its previous peak of more than 9,000. Now the U-turn: The Israeli Health Ministry reported 895 new cases on Friday. There were 692 new infections on Saturday (no cases were reported on Sunday due to a technical defect). But the numbers apparently continue to decline. Therefore, in the country of around nine million inhabitants, anti-crown measures have been relaxed again for a week. For example, beaches can be revisited, and beginning November 1, first and second graders will be re-taught for a few hours in school buildings. The requirement that citizens cannot move more than one kilometer from their homes has been removed.
The beach can be visited again in Israel in the wake of relaxation.
Photo: Oded Balilty (Keystone via AP)
In Europe, and especially in Switzerland, the scenario is the other way around: over the weekend there were 17,440 new infections in this country with a positivity rate of 21.3 percent (Click here to view the Corona ticker for Switzerland) – The Federal Council will decide on a second Swiss blockade next Wednesday. Can we learn lessons for Switzerland from Israel’s actions? Eran Segal, one of the leading Covid-19 statisticians and researchers at the Weizmann Institute of Sciences in Rechovot, has posted his findings and assessments in a sort of guide on Twitter. The following findings could be helpful for Switzerland in the fight against the pandemic:
Surprisingly, the second block was shorter but more effective, although it was less strict than the first. Just 10 days after the lockdown was imposed, the number of cases had decreased again, which was twice as fast as the first. Also, unlike the first shutdown in Israel, activities that did not involve close contact with other people were still allowed. This indicates that these areas may not have to be part of a blockage at all. The R-value, a person’s average infection rate, has also decreased more than in the first wave. However, Segal can only speculate on the reasons. The obligation to wear a mask certainly contributed to this, as did the banning of events and school closings. Segal has advised in the past not to keep schools open when the number of cases increases and the infection rate is high. Opening schools would only exacerbate the pandemic. School operations are ineffective anyway if many children and teachers must be quarantined.
Until now, schools have not been seen as drivers of the pandemic in other countries. However, this aspect has not yet been sufficiently investigated scientifically. At least she has “Hello Corona” -Studie The University of Zurich found no evidence that children are strongly spreading the corona virus.
Different groups, different measurements
Segal also refers to the different population groups (Israelis, Orthodox, Arabs) to whom different measures would have been applied. In hindsight, this has proven useful, as the virus is highly unlikely to behave the same in all parts of the country. There were a particularly high number of corona infections in strictly religious residential areas. Large families often live together there in overcrowded conditions.
Health capabilities as misleading benchmarks
But the epidemiologist also warns of the mistakes Israel made in fighting the pandemic. Segal cites the definition of a limit value in hospitals as the biggest mistake from which many secondary errors have arisen. “Define a maximum occupancy capacity and you will definitely achieve it, with a high number of cases and a high mortality,” he writes on Twitter. The capabilities of a health system are achieved much faster than is commonly assumed. Low death rates or empty intensive care units are often misleading snapshots.
How quickly the healthcare system can reach its limits can be seen today in Schwyz and in the cantons of Valais and Vaud, where hospitals and experts warn of overload.
In the Canton of Geneva, the University Hospital (HUG) urgently needs additional staff due to the rapid increase in hospital admissions due to the second wave of the pandemic. On Sunday, the hospital issued a corresponding appeal to former retired employees and those on unpaid leave. Therefore, the clinic management is looking for volunteers immediately for medical, nursing or administrative tasks, as announced by the clinic. Additional doctors and nurses in intensive care units, for example, must strengthen and replace existing teams in the hospital.
Virologist Isabella Eckerle from the University of Geneva calls for an immediate closure in view of the current situation in Switzerland. There is no other way. Eckerle also warns: “If politicians do not react immediately, we will not go this winter without a large death toll and immense economic damage.”
In the canton of Schwyz, the government has now tightened the measures. Private events with more than ten people and other events with more than 30 people are prohibited from Monday today. In the workplace, it is now mandatory to wear a mask indoors, the canton said Sunday afternoon.
Covid outbreak in central Switzerland: A musical, yodelling and the Stubete – read here how Schwyz became a Corona hotspot.
Successful model with reservations
Was the second closure in Israel a success? Although the number of new infections has plummeted, experts remain skeptical. The curfew stopped the flow of blood, but did not fix the cause of the bleeding, said epidemiologist Ran Balicer, quoted by the Berliner Morgenpost. Israel continues to struggle with the same problems as before. If these are not resolved, there will soon be a third crash. The biggest obstacle is that many Israelis no longer trust their government to control the crisis. Especially since the lockdowns have negatively affected the economy: according to estimates, more than 80,000 companies will surrender this year. The unemployment rate is already above 20 percent.
“It is very likely that what we are preparing now will take a long time.”
Although confirmed corona cases in Switzerland have doubled again over the weekend compared to the previous week, the Federal Council wants New national measures are not expected to be announced until Wednesday.. “Panic and excitement” would bring little now, Health Minister Alain Berset said Monday in Lausanne.
Because “what we are preparing now will most likely take a long time.” The situation is serious and gets worse every day. Therefore, it needs a “strong reaction,” Berset said. And: “We have to do better than in March”, when entire sectors of the economy had to be closed.
