Boris Johnson’s Law of the Market Overcomes First Hurdle, But He Hasn’t Won His Poker Yet

Boris Johnson’s course of confrontation with the EU has drawn much criticism.

Kirsty Wigglesworth / AP

Veteran observers of the Brexit saga were reminded of the chaotic days of 2019, when the government and parliament fought epic and paralyzing speeches and voting battles over leaving the EU. On Monday, Brexit was back on the House of Commons agenda, in the form of the new market law, which aims to give the government the authority to unilaterally break the Northern Ireland Protocol to the Brexit Treaty in the state aid area and certain export regulations. MPs debated the controversial bill for five and a half hours until the first significant vote was due late at night. Prime Minister Boris Johnson clearly won it with 340 to 263 votes, also with the support of Northern Ireland unionists, so the proposal is now being discussed in detail.

Conservative malaise

Unlike a year ago, Johnson now has a comfortable 80-seat majority in the House of Commons. Therefore, Johnson’s victory at this first hurdle was generally expected. However, the result can only superficially hide the fact that the prime minister is also experiencing resistance from within. It is true that only two conservative deputies voted against the defense. But the Conservatives’ roughly 30 abstentions are the first warning sign, and this number also includes normal absences. In the debate, several deputies pointed to unease and resentment over a law that openly violates international law and announced that they would eventually reject the agreement or at least be unable to support it in its current form. If the opposition is closed, 40 conservative votes against are enough for a rebellion. A decisive amendment by the rebels will be put to the vote in a week, stating that the government cannot violate the provisions of the exit treaty with the EU without prior parliamentary approval.

Last week, the Northern Ireland minister frankly admitted that the law violated international law, if only in a “specific and limited” way. As a result, three former Conservative Prime Ministers, John Major, Theresa May and David Cameron, openly criticized the bill. But resistance also comes from prominent Brexit supporters. Former Home Secretary Sajid Javid announced his rejection, as did former Attorney General Geoffrey Cox, who had once legally torn apart the support for Northern Ireland promoted by Johnson’s predecessor, Theresa May. They both argue that the government should use the dispute resolution mechanisms within the Brexit treaty instead of breaking the treaty. Meanwhile, former conservative attorney general Jeremy Wright emphasized that the code of conduct for government officials requires compliance not only with national law, but also with international law.

Serious accusations to the EU

Yet Johnson is confident of the loyalty of the vast majority of his MPs, and the rebellion has not reached uncontrollable proportions so far. During his appearance in the House of Commons, the Prime Minister signaled some openness to the concerns of critics by stating that the government would only use the powers to break the Brexit Treaty as an extreme measure and after renewing the parliamentary consultation. He also claimed that his government is still fighting for a free trade agreement with the EU; the law of the market is only a guarantee in case negotiations fail. Without a free trade agreement, after the end of the Brexit transition period in early 2021, there is a risk of a hard break with the EU with considerable economic and political turmoil.

Johnson claimed that the rogue EU was negotiating with a revolver on the table and had threatened to cut off Northern Ireland from food deliveries from the UK, although this is dismissed by Brussels as malicious propaganda. The Prime Minister also stressed that the government cannot allow an international organization to have influence to endanger the territorial integrity of the UK. However, it was Johnson himself who signed the corresponding contract with the EU partners last fall, in which Northern Ireland remains de facto in parts of the EU internal market.

Miliband: “What incompetence!”

The spokesman for the Labor opposition, Black Economy Minister Ed Miliband, struck him down with enthusiasm. What incompetence! What a failed government! Miliband exclaimed, emphasizing that Johnson was solely responsible for the debacle. The former Labor leader consistently broke the bill and accused Johnson of failing to read Northern Ireland’s protocol to the Brexit treaty or its new market law. He repeatedly asked the Prime Minister to explain where the law prevents the alleged danger of a food embargo by the EU, but Johnson was silent.

In addition to a grueling test of strength in the House of Commons, Johnson also threatens a showdown with the House of Lords, especially as the Lords want to defend Britain’s reputation as an international guarantor of the rule of law. Even if the government finally prevails, the law of the market threatens to do a lot of political damage to the earth in the coming weeks and drain energy. It also remains to be seen whether Johnson, with his muscular game, can win concessions from the EU in the negotiations for a trade deal, or whether the fronts will not toughen up. Brussels already sees the presentation of the market law as a breach of the Brexit deal and last week finally asked London to remove the controversial passages by the end of September.