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A big butt settles over Switzerland and threatens to crush the country. He wears blue pants, held by a belt with the yellow stars of the European flag: “Too much is too much!” The SVP uses this motif to advertise its Limitation Initiative (BGI). Those who drive across the country are less likely to see the butt of the EU than subjects from previous campaigns: “It has never been so difficult to convince our farmers to put up posters on their land,” says a politician from the SVP canton of Zurich, which remains anonymous wanting.
The BGI also generates relatively little response from newspaper ads. According to an evaluation by the University of Bern, significantly fewer ads appeared than in previous SVP proposals. The explanation: BGI is fought less strongly by opponents than, for example, the mass immigration initiative adopted in 2014 or the self-determination initiative that failed in 2018.
“Blocher torments us until we get back to 10 percent”
Opponents can afford this restraint: according to the latest polls, only a third want to put a yes on the ballot box. The SVP is threatened with rejection on its central immigration issue. Behind closed doors, SVP national councils also hold internal party processes accountable for this.
The retirement pension discussion, which former federal councilor Christoph Blocher subsequently demanded in July, took lasting damage.
“When we distribute flyers on the street, we hear a lot about it,” says a member of the National Council. Hardly anyone in the SVP parliamentary group can speak well of the dean: “Christoph Blocher torments us until we drop back down to 10 percent. I should finally let it go. But he can’t do it. “National Councilor Lukas Reimann, who generally only finds words of praise for Blocher, says:” The excitement about his pension certainly didn’t help the election campaign. “
The group’s leader, Thomas Aeschi, is also criticized. He had “spoiled” the preparation of the elections for federal judges. The public break with his own federal judge Yves Donzallaz was a strategic mistake: “Donzallaz can now present himself as a victim everywhere.”
The party leadership remains officially optimistic: “The polls were wrong about the mass immigration initiative,” says Lucerne’s national councilor Franz Grüter, the party’s vice president and chief of staff. The discussions about Blocher’s pension and the elections for federal judges are “empty margins that are puffed up in the media.”
If the vote on the limitation initiative were lost, the SVP would at least have fulfilled its duty and would have warned of the consequences of “uncontrolled immigration”: “Then the other parties have a duty if we have a Switzerland of 10 million in a few few years. »
“SVP has to rethink its marketing strategy”
For political scientist Lukas Golder of the Gfs Bern research institute, a resounding no to BGI would be one more sign that “the executive vice president must fundamentally rethink her marketing strategy.” The party currently has a mobilization problem, which has already led to its defeats in the October 2019 elections.
For a long time the SVP managed to set the political agenda with initiatives, to mobilize discontent and turn this into electoral success. This recipe no longer works: “The right of initiative has been abused by the right.” Since the “impact of the mass immigration initiative,” the opposing side has generally been better mobilized: “Right now, the SVP’s initiatives, rather than its own voters, are drawing more than a million to the polls. average city dwellers, women, and well-educated people who vote no. “
For Golder, the vote on the framework agreement with the EU will be decisive for the future of the party, if the Federal Council signs it (see below). If you lose this ballot, the “disenchantment of the SVP” will continue. “Then he can no longer claim, with reference to the EEA No. 1992, that with a majority of the people by his side, he will be the only force to defend the sovereignty of Switzerland.”
Franz Grüter also emphasizes the importance of the framework agreement: “With this vote, we are penetrating the bone marrow of our democracy.” Sovereignty issues are the “brand essence of the SVP”. Therefore, a 180 degree turn in strategy is out of the question: “We maintain our convictions and therefore we do politics.”
But within the group, the reduction to migration and EU issues is criticized. “The SVP must also address other issues,” says National Councilor Lukas Reimann, citing security of supply as an example. National Counsel Barbara Steinemann believes that the Executive Vice President has an obligation to offer solutions to problems such as the costs of health care or the provision of aging services. “People expect our party to show how problems can be tackled.”
Vice President Franz Grüter admits that the vice presidency for health and social policy “has not been noticed enough recently.” With Monika Rüegger (responsible for family and social policy) and Lars Guggisberg (financial and fiscal policy), the party leadership increased its staff accordingly in August.
