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A woman kneels in front of security forces in the center of Minsk city on Sunday, August 30. Image: keystone
Tens of thousands in Minsk defy Lukashenko’s troop deployment and Putin’s threat
The martial contingent of troops in Minsk’s Independence Square is more massive than it has been since the presidential elections three weeks ago. On his 66th birthday Sunday, controversial head of state Alexander Lukashenko deployed hundreds of uniformed men and special technology against peaceful protesters. His goal: no more massive demonstrations with hundreds of thousands, like the last two Sundays.
Mass security presence in Minsk. Image: keystone
But despite the threatening situation, tens of thousands are on their feet. Many are not deterred by the threat of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin to send Russian troops to help Lukashenko.
It is true that this time the citizens do not reach the Minsk Independence Square. It is cordoned off with metal bars. There are arrests. But thousands of people gather in many parts of the city and challenge the uniformed. “Uchodi!” – “Get lost!” – the crowd sings. And “Lukashenko v Avtosak” – “Lukashenko on the prisoner transporter.”
Putin’s partisanship
Another issue on the street this time is the demand to Putin not to interfere. Many Belarusians are disappointed that the Kremlin chief has sided with Lukashenko. “We expected a neutral position for Russia,” says former Culture Minister Pavel Latuschko. That is over now. Latuschko admits that the “pressure” had a psychological effect on the protests. Putin’s word of power strengthens the power apparatus in Belarus, which is now cracking down on protesters.
This is also reflected in the police presence on the streets of the Belarusian capital. For days, the Kremlin had patiently watched the protests against Lukashenko. But since hundreds of thousands have protested every Sunday, patience in Moscow has likely run out. The images of revolution and the desire for freedom that could radiate to Russia are extremely inconvenient for the Kremlin. Also, like many weeks ago, Putin probably wondered about Lukashenko’s appearance with a Kalashnikov in hand as the defender of his presidential palace. This is probably one of the reasons you are now offering help.
There is no way for the protesters: the security forces cordon off the center of the city. Image: keystone
“The fact that Putin now has to express himself like this shows how weak Lukashenko is, how much he fears his people,” says opponent Maria Kolesnikova in Minsk. It is a great shame that Lukashenko has to ask for help from the same Russia that she accused during the election campaign of wanting to incorporate Belarus. Others go further and say that Putin has now shown who is boss in Belarus. Putin’s threat to use a combat reserve in an emergency is not just a warning to the opposition to hold back. It is also a signal for the West not to interfere.
The next protests are coming
“Russia is not prepared to support the people’s desire for change and freedom,” says former diplomat Latuschko. But he remains optimistic: in the face of the severe economic crisis, a new wave of protests threatened to worsen social and economic problems. Belarus is in the chalk with Russia with billions. The ruble is losing its value enormously against the euro and the US dollar. Several IT companies have announced that they are leaving the country, which focuses on the digital sector in addition to agriculture. The specialists go.
Minsk political scientist Valery Karbelevich now expects a new wave of repression. “The adjustment of the thumb screws has already started,” says the 65-year-old from the German Press Agency in Minsk. With Putin’s threat, the protest no longer has perspective. “Putin protects the regime mainly because he fears a revolution in Belarus, because it would be a bad example for Russia and it could be infected,” says Karbelevich. Putin is turning people against him here. This increases anti-Russian sentiment. Sacrifice everything to not allow a revolution. “
Nor can it be stopped on Sunday: protesters in Minsk. Image: keystone
What is the West really doing?
And the west? Moscow political scientist Lilia Shevtsova said she failed the test of enforcing her own values in the conflict. “Do not provoke Russia, this fear determines the western reaction to the Belarusian August.” The Western approach to resolving conflict through compromise is doomed to failure for dictators from the start. The West will never mess with Russia’s nuclear power because of Belarus.
Experts in Moscow and Minsk agree that Putin will pay well for his aid to Lukashenko, and Belarus could become even more dependent on Russia than before. Putin maintains his buffer zone with NATO, but is turning into a bankrupt country, Shevtsova says. And he takes responsibility for “sadism and violence” under Lukashenko. She also fears that Putin will lose the most valuable thing: the pro-Russian mood in Belarus.
For a long time, the opposition in Belarus assumed that the Kremlin would not mind installing a new loyal governor in Minsk. “But Putin has now decided that the risk is too great to bet on someone else,” says expert Karbelevich. During the revolution in Georgia, the Kremlin once trusted Mikhail Saakashvili, who also made his first state visit to Moscow. Then in 2008, war broke out. Instead, Moscow has now decided, as it did in Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968, not to allow any freedom.
