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Credit Suisse and UBS Really Merging? The stock market is giving credence to the rumors: Shares of the two big banks move to the top of SMI stocks in early trading on Monday, and remain there until the stock market closes. UBS shares are up a good 2 percent and CS shares even more than 4 percent.
Banking experts like Manuel Ammann (50) of the University of St. Gallen are much more sober: “The rumor about a merger of UBS and CS comes up regularly,” Ammann tells BLICK. It’s hard to know what’s behind the rumor. “It is difficult for me to understand the industrial logic of such a merger. From my point of view, that doesn’t make sense. ”
It shouldn’t work
This time, an online portal with often intimate knowledge of the financial center put the rumor into circulation: UBS Chairman of the Board of Directors Axel Weber is planning a merger with CS Chairman Urs Rohner, the portal wrote. Finance “Inside Paradeplatz”. According to the report, the merger should be agreed in early 2021 and, by the end of 2021, Switzerland would have a new financial giant.
UBS and CS declined to comment on the speculation at the request of the AWP news agency. “Necessity makes merger,” however, a market observer commented on the speculation.
Ammann does the math: “The hope for each merger: that 1 plus 1 results in more than 2. However, in the case of a merger between UBS and CS, there is a good chance that this calculation will not work, that is, 1 plus 1 wouldn’t even result in 2. “The banking expert is convinced that the merger of UBS and CS would create a company so complex that a merger would cause many business problems.
Authority concerns
In addition, it is likely that many clients of the two large companies will migrate towards the competition. That means: cantonal banks or Raiffeisen cooperatives benefit from the merger.
Ammann is convinced that the authorities should not simply salute the new banking giant: “The obstacles to a merger of the two big banks are high: the bank would have to meet difficult conditions, especially in the areas of competition and systemic risks.”
This means that banking regulator Finma would likely fear a cluster risk for the financial center. Comco’s Competition Commission would have a objection to the banking giant’s market power.
