[ad_1]
Analysis
Happy ending or chaos: everything is possible after November 3
These five scenarios are conceivable when the endless election campaign between Donald Trump and Joe Biden finally ends.
The American elections are always a spectacle. This year there are more, they are historical. Whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden are sworn in as president on January 20, 2021 will change the course of the world. Around the world, people are watching closely what will happen on November 3 in a long night in the United States. Here are five possible outcomes:
Wet Happy End Florida
The state of Florida can send 29 out of a total of 538 voters to Washington. Only Texas and California have a larger contingent. Florida’s population is also a reflection of America as a melting pot. It is mixed in every way. Therefore, Florida has a special meaning in the American elections: whoever wins the Sunshine State generally also wins the White House.
Because Florida is on the East Coast and because mail-in votes have already been counted on Election Day, the result is known from the outset. This has consequences: Voters in states where the polls are still open don’t even vote if their Florida candidate is defeated. If Joe Biden gets Florida, he would easily pick up the necessary 279 voices from the voters.
Fight for every voice in the sunshine state: Joe Biden Image: keystone
If the Florida Democrats win, that’s half the battle. It would be a signal for a landslide “blue” victory. Other traditionally “red states” could also roll over. North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, and even Texas are potential candidates. So it’s no wonder Joe Biden recently exclaimed at his Tampa election rally, “If we win Florida, it’s game over.”
Not quite. A Biden victory at Sunshine State would be a serious blow to Trump, but not a coup de grace. On the contrary, a win would give the starter a huge boost. In national polls it is still around eight percentage points behind. But thanks to the Elector system, he still has a good chance of repeating his stunning victory from four years ago. A win in Florida would be the best prerequisite.
Rust belt ensures clear relationships
Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election in the former industrial regions of the US, the so-called “rust belt.” This rust belt also includes Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in particular. In these countries traditionally ruled by Democrats, Trump managed four years ago to obtain the electoral votes necessary for victory with a very small majority.
If he wants to stay in the White House, Trump will have to win these three states again this year. That should be tight. In Michigan and Wisconsin, it lags far behind in the polls. The fact that the corona virus is spreading particularly violently in the rust belt should also reduce its chances.
Failed in the rust belt: Hillary Clinton. Bild: AP / AP
However, with a victory at the rust belt, Biden could erase the notch left by Hillary Clinton. The Democrats would have recovered their homeland and it would be very difficult to challenge them for victory.
Pennsylvania plays destiny
Like Florida, the state of Pennsylvania will play a crucial, possibly disastrous role in this election. The “New York Times” quotes political science professor Richard Hasen as follows: “When the going gets really tough and everything depends on Pennsylvania, God help us.” What do you mean by that?
Unlike Florida, votes mailed in Pennsylvania are only counted after polls close. This means that the final result of the election may not be known until days after the election.
This can have fatal consequences because not all voters behave in the same way. Democrats vote by letter much more often than Republicans. The pandemic will exacerbate this trend.
In rural Pennsylvania, Trump fans have the upper hand. Image: keystone
This makes the following scenario possible: On the night of November 3, extrapolations show that Trump is in the lead. To prevent a possible victory for Biden, the president declares himself the winner on election night. The votes on the cards were rigged anyway, Trump has been claiming for months.
For their part, Democrats will immediately challenge the countdown in court. Now it is getting complicated.
Chaos
In the 79 days between the elections on November 3 of this year and the inauguration on January 20, 2021, all hell breaks loose. The constitution is ambiguous about who ultimately decides which voters are sent to Washington.
Republicans have a majority in the Pennsylvania Congress, but the governor is a Democrat. Therefore, it could be that Congress and the Governor elect different electors and the choice of the president ultimately depends on which of these votes is valid.
Or to put it another way: it would create legal chaos that would make the 2000 Florida election debacle look like Sunday school. The fact that a conservatively governed Supreme Court makes the final decision does not build confidence.
Civil war
Walmart just removed all guns and ammunition from its displays. The retailer fears that after the elections riots will break out and these items will be stolen.
Police stations across the country are also preparing for violent riots. Chuck Wexler, a police expert, told the New York Times: “The police are arming in a way that we have never seen.”
The precautionary measures are more than justified. The atmosphere in the United States is explosive. Right-wing extremists call for resistance. If Trump loses the election, he may incite them to violent acts.
Left-wing organizations like Black Lives Matter will fight. Skirmishes have already occurred in the run-up to the elections. In Portland, Seattle and New York, right-wing militias and liberal protesters have already clashed violently.
Ready for anything: member of a far-right militia. Image: keystone
Therefore, a controversial electoral result and a President Trump refusing to leave the White House would have consequences that are difficult to foresee. The word “civil war” appears more and more frequently in the big-name media.
If the riots got out of control, the oldest democracy would be in danger. A coup would have been within our grasp. As Commander-in-Chief, the president would theoretically have the option of mobilizing the army.
However, it is unclear whether the military would follow. First, the United States Army has no tradition of coups, and second, its love for the president is limited.
Trump once shunned military service, treated highly respected military officers like Jim Mattis or HR McMaster very badly, and called soldiers “fools and losers.” The generals have not forgotten.
