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Federal authorities are examining the introduction of a tiered system throughout Switzerland so that the economy better knows what to expect in the Corona crisis. But this traffic light is not without its dangers.
The federal government is considering introducing a traffic light system nationwide.
There is no worse poison for the economy than planning uncertainty, but the Corona crisis is turning into a real blind getaway for many companies: the number of cases is doubling faster and faster and no one knows when hospitals will arrive. Its limits. In addition, the mood changes almost day by day: after another blockade in the summer seemed taboo, the Federal Council is already considering a temporary forced closure for the entire country. It is not entirely clear whether such a “circuit breaker” will occur: no one knows in detail what it means for the economy.
“Responsibility changed”
Therefore, the economy is putting pressure on him: he wants to be able to better plan crisis management. “If the federal government records in a pandemic plan what corona numbers it wants to take what action, this would create the opportunity for companies to prepare for federal action,” says Rudolf Minsch, chief economist at Economiesuisse. His association has been calling for a step-by-step plan to be presented since June, but the federal government has always resisted. “Apparently nothing has happened in recent weeks,” enthuses Minsch. Instead, responsibility was simply transferred to the cantons.
Countries like Ireland and Austria show how such a traffic light system can work. A five-stage traffic light system called the “Plan to Live with Covid” has been in place in Ireland since mid-September. Depending on the number of cases, a set of measures automatically takes effect. It regulates, for example, the number of cases from which sporting events can still be held, a visit to a restaurant or pool is allowed, and how many guests are still allowed at events. If the traffic light turns red, a lockout is called. The alert system is applied throughout the country. If individual regions of the country have higher case numbers, a higher tier applies there.
Alert system for risk areas
The EU has also agreed on a uniform crown traffic light that should make it easier for citizens to travel. The alert system uses four colors to identify risk areas to better contain the spread of the virus. If the traffic light in a region turns red, drastic travel restrictions apply there. The classification is based on the so-called 14-day incidence: this is the number of corona infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks. The rate of positive tests and the rate of tests performed are also taken into account.
Corona traffic lights are not unheard of in Switzerland either. Several cantons are trying to improve communication and planning with these systems. With a view to the second wave, the canton of Zug, for example, developed such an alarm level concept in the summer, which is mainly based on the number of cases. As a possible early warning system, the automatic absence control for employees of the cantonal administration and the measurement of virus components in the wastewater are also verified, as can be seen from the concept published in the “Schweizerische Ärztezeitung”.
St. Gallen had to adjust the plan
But the system is above all an internal work tool. Unlike traffic lights abroad, the colors do not change automatically in the canton of Zug. The respective alert level is also not actively communicated to the outside world: the canton does not “assume that a fixed sequence of interventions can be determined in advance if the situation worsens,” says the newspaper. Therefore, the system is of little use for gastronomy and other branches of the economy.
Cantons are generally skeptical about rigid grids: “We do not consider an automatism, that is, a system with clearly defined measurements with clearly defined numbers, to be effective,” explains Tobias Bär, spokesperson for the cantonal health directors conference. Generally, there are several factors to consider, such as the rate of spread, the groups of people affected or the formation of clusters. It should therefore be possible to decide on the necessary measures based on the respective situation and with the corresponding margin of discretion. This was the experience of the canton of St. Gallen this week: it had to adapt a three-stage escalation plan adopted in July, as he put it: It has been shown ‘that the trigger criteria for additional restrictions were too case-oriented of people who tested positive very little in the number of people receiving hospital care. “
Yellow to red
The traps associated with a fixed traffic light were also on display last week in the canton of Bern, which put a traffic light system into operation for major events in October. The traffic light was yellow until Sunday: therefore, large events could be carried out with a corresponding protection concept. Bern’s sports clubs were prepared for this: even if they had switched to orange, large-scale events with more than 1,000 participants would still have been possible, albeit with additional requirements. But on Sunday, the health director, Pierre-Alain Schnegg, changed the traffic light from yellow to red and took everyone by surprise. Since then there has been a thick air between the sports clubs and Schnegg.
Bern’s traffic light system simulated a predictability that was not given in light of the enormous dynamics of the pandemic. The traffic light system is also controversial among epidemiologists. “It makes little sense for measures for an entire country to be based on three colors,” says working group member Marcel Tanner of the University of Basel. In Switzerland, the number of infections was very uneven for a long time, and in some cases it still is today. “The implementation of a fixed step-by-step plan throughout Switzerland would therefore only lead to more uncertainties and discussions about the appropriateness of the measures in individual regions,” said the epidemiologist.
It’s too late anyway
Despite such objections, business concerns in Bern no longer fall on deaf ears. “We are in the process of discussing a traffic light system with the BAG,” says Martin Ackermann, head of the federal task force, in an interview with Swiss radio SRF. There are no suspicions from the authorities behind the plans. Rather, they want to increase the planning and traceability of the measures. It is unclear how far BAG’s work on a new traffic light system has advanced. The Federal Office of Public Health responded to a request from NZZ and the federal government will provide information in due course. It seems certain that introducing such a step-by-step plan is no longer a priority at the moment, as Ackermann makes clear: “The traffic lights are already red.”
