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1. How dramatic is the situation?
The number of 2,823 laboratory-confirmed infections on October 14 is high. It is significantly higher than at the beginning of the pandemic. The highest value was on March 24 with 1530 tested positive. However, back then there were probably more infections that went undetected because significantly fewer tests were done than today. The number of unreported cases is still considered very high today. The positivity rate, that is, the proportion of positive tests, was 26 percent at the end of March, now 13.6.
This is a significant increase from the beginning of October, when this rate was still 5 percent. The high positivity rate worries former task force chief Matthias Egger. “It suggests that many more people are infected but are not getting tested.” In general, the higher number of infections in early fall is not a surprise. This is the case every year with respiratory diseases. Daniel Koch already predicted an increase.
It is important if the high number is a single event and tomorrow the numbers will fall again. If not, and the trend continues to rise, that should influence the type of measures. Because right now the reproduction rate, the R number, is too high. It is between 1.5 and 2. However, it should be below 1, because then an infected person will infect less than one person, which means that the epidemic will decrease.
2. Who is infected?
Most of them were infected in the age group 20 to 29 years, about a fifth. Those in their 30s and 50s are still behind. People over the age of 70 are less affected.
This mixing of ages has been observed since the summer. More older people were affected in the spring. However, there has been a trend towards an increase among older people in recent weeks.
3. Where is it infected?
Due to contact tracing, family and work are mentioned as the most common places of infection. However, someone has to bring the coronavirus to the family first. Therefore, infectious people assume that viruses are transmitted everywhere, but with different degrees of intensity. According to Marcel Tanner of the Task Force, private events are currently given the greatest weight, which, unlike large-scale events where great discipline prevails, are often characterized by carelessness.
It is not just about the main family, but about the private environment in which distance and hygiene requirements are often no longer met. They know each other. But if someone in this environment is infected in a club or bar, the family and those around him will be infected.
4. Are hospitals on edge?
Yesterday the BAG reported 57 hospital deliveries. At St. Gallen Cantonal Hospital, for example, there are currently six Covid patients in the intensive care unit and 16 in the normal ward. “That means we are also seeing an increase in ourselves. But they are still far from being overloaded. Ultimately, however, in intensive care units in particular, it depends on how many ‘other’ patients need to be seen at the same time, ”says Philipp Lutz of the Cantonal Hospital of St. Gallen.
Tanner says that the hospitalization rate reacts to infections with a delay of about two weeks, the trend is already visible. The situation in Schwyz looks bad. There, the hospital management sent a call for help due to the threat of overload because more and more Covid 19 patients needed oxygen.
5. What measures are now conceivable?
The truth is that another partial blockage like in spring should be avoided. Matthias Egger says that the number of cases will not decrease in the short term, and calls for measures at the national and cantonal level. He thinks a national home office recommendation and an indoor mask requirement make sense. In his opinion, the cantons should consider an upper limit for private and public events, depending on the situation.
Geneva decided on such a measure on Wednesday: in public spaces there is a maximum limit of 15 people, in private one of 100. In addition, says Egger, consider the temporary closure of clubs and discos. Geneva and Vaud, two seriously affected cantons, have already taken this measure. In Zurich, a mask requirement applies from Thursday in clubs and other restaurants where people don’t sit. In addition, the staff of all catering establishments must wear a mask.
6. What can you expect from Thursday’s crisis summit?
The coincidence is that a high-level meeting between the federal government and the cantons is scheduled for Thursday. Federal President Simonetta Sommaruga has invited a summit in which her colleagues Alain Berset and Guy Parmelin, the latter, will also participate.
On behalf of the cantons, Christian Rathgeb, president of the Conference of Cantonal Governments, as well as the top directors of economy and health Lukas Engelberger and Christoph Brutschin are present. The aim is to improve cooperation between the Confederation and the canton and to find out if new national measures are needed and if the cantons need help, for example in locating contacts.
However, it is not to be expected that decisions will be taken, which are of the Federal Council and the cantonal governments. Christoph Brutschin could imagine that orders will be given, for example, to come up with a package of measures that the federal government and the cantons would jointly recommend when certain case numbers are reached.
Jordi, secretary general of the Conference of Health Directors, puts it this way: “It’s about discussing the next steps. Perhaps the conclusion is reached that certain national measures are needed, which the federal government decrees for all of Switzerland. However, this must be done in accordance with the cantons. “
