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Picture:
Keystone
Will it be impossible for Lara Gut-Behrami to catch the big ball after the last World Cup relegation is canceled? We analyze the shape of the two opponents and visualize the desired scenario.
Certainly: the cancellation of the two races scheduled for Wednesday is a setback for the Swiss ski team. Both Marco Odermatt and Lara Gut-Behrami could have used the points in the fight for the overall World Cup on Wednesday. But there is no time to complain, now it is important to make the best of the situation and not lose faith in success.
Analysis of “Blue Sport” shows: Lara Gut-Behrami is in a duel with Petra Vlhova before the last three races that depend on the help of shooting. With brilliant results in the giant slalom and the Super-G discipline parade, Ticino can certainly put their rival under pressure. The initial situation:
Gut-Behrami vs. Vlhova: the great analysis of form
Gut-Behrami: The last three results
- Rank 2 in Val di Fassa -> 80 Punkte
- Garmisch rank 1 -> 100 points
- Garmisch rank 1 -> 100 points
Average of the last three races: 93.33 points. Gut-Behrami can only keep his court with a win.
Vlhova: The last three results
- 32 rang in Val di Fassa -> 0 Punkte
- Rank 2 in Garmisch -> 80 points
- 10th place in Garmisch -> 26 points
Average of the last three races: 35.33 points. Petra Vlhova’s seventh place in Lenzerheide is required to maintain her own point average.
Super-G Lenzerheide
Thursday March 18 09:15 – 10:50 | SRF two
CH 2021 | 95 min
Gut-Behrami: The last three results
- 8th place in Jasna -> 32 points
- 2nd place at Kronplatz -> 80 points
- Rank 4 Kranjska Gora -> 50 points
Average of the last three races: 54 points. Gut-Behrami needs at least third place to stay within point average.
Vlhova: The last three results
- Ranged 1 in Jana -> 100 Punke
- 12th place at Kranzplatz -> 22 points
- Rank 10 in Kranjska Gora -> 26 points
Average of the last three races: 49.33 points. If Vlhova is fourth, she can keep her point average.
Gut-Behrami certainly has his qualities in the post forest too, but in recent years he has given up on discipline entirely. However, if you are considering starting in Lenzerheide, no points are expected.
Vlhova: The last three results
- 8 rang in Are -> 32 Punkte
- 1 rang in Are -> 100 Punkte
- Rank 2 in Jasna -> 80 points
Average of the last three races: 70.66 points. Vlhova needs at least rank 2 to stay average.
If all goes according to the statistics, Gut-Behrami is a few points short at the end to win the World Cup overall. If Vlhova can maintain his point average from the last few races, he would score 1500 points after the slalom, something unattainable for Gut-Behrami. But: in skiing, things rarely go as planned.
There are also scenarios in which Gut-Behrami can cheer at the end. But victory in the Super-G, and thus another hussar ride in her parade discipline, is mandatory for the 29-year-old. To do this, Petra Vlhova would have to go home empty-handed at the same time, as recently in two of the last three races in this discipline. And yet, in this case, Ticino would only have four points ahead of Slovak before the giant slalom, it is not enough.
Gut-Behrami should also score a lot of points in the giant slalom, which the Ticino woman in her current form can be trusted to do. For example, if he took the podium in third place and Vlhova missed the top ten, the lead would increase to 36 points or more.
Even then, Gut-Behrami would still have to rely on shooting aid in slalom. However, Petra Vlhova would have to finish at least seventh there to grab the great crystal ball. In the last slalom held in Are, the Slovak was unsuccessful, so the hope of Swiss ski fans lives on.
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