The most important graphics for Sars-CoV-2

The “extraordinary situation” under the Epidemic Law has prevailed in Switzerland for seven weeks. On March 16, the Federal Council tightened measures to protect the population. Shops, restaurants, bars, entertainment and leisure facilities, as well as schools and universities were closed. Since Monday, April 27, hairdressing, cosmetic and massage studios, hardware stores, garden centers, florists and garden centers have been reopened, with more facilities to follow.

The measures aim to delay the spread of the virus and, above all, prevent many people from getting sick at the same time and preventing the health system from collapsing, because the number of cases had initially continued to increase. Now you can see that this growth is stabilizing considerably. Furthermore, most patients have probably recovered.

Calculations by the research team led by Tanja Stadler at ETH Zurich indicate that the restrictive measures worked in Switzerland. Based on confirmed infections, the number of hospitalizations and deaths, the task force reconstructed how the so-called reproductive number has developed in Switzerland since the beginning of March. This number must be less than 1 to stop exponential growth. Because on average, an infected person is less infected than another. According to calculations, the number of reproductions in Switzerland is now between 0.65 and 0.8 with a high probability.

Weekly death statistics in Switzerland slowly show the severity of the Covid 19 pandemic compared to an influenza outbreak. In calendar week 14 (ending April 5), there were 411 more deaths in people over the age of 65 than was statistically expected at the time. In the following weeks, however, the number decreased again.

For comparison: at the height of the flu wave in 2015 there were around 270 more deaths than expected, in 2017 there were 230 more. Counting all current mortality cases against Covid-19 alone would be wrong, because lung disease is rarely the only cause of death. Many patients have some serious pre-existing conditions. According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office, there is currently no evidence of over-mortality among people under the age of 65.

The following charts always show confirmed coronavirus infections. The number of known infected people always lags behind reality. It can be assumed that the number of people actually infected with the virus is greater everywhere. On the one hand, in many countries only risk patients and patients with strong symptoms are analyzed. On the other hand, approximately five days elapse between infection and the appearance of the first symptoms, and the Sars CoV-2 test and its evaluation also take time.

An international comparison makes it clear that the distribution curve is currently flatter in Switzerland than in Italy or Germany. It rises more steeply in the US UU., But now you can also see a flattening there.

The number of cases in Switzerland is now growing at less than one percent per day, and the increase has slowed down considerably. This growth was earlier and slowed more sharply in Switzerland than in Germany, Italy, or the United States.

However, South Korea was even faster than in Switzerland, where authorities carried out a relatively large number of tests at an early stage to be able to accurately understand the spread, so that infected people were strictly isolated.

You can read our analysis of the measures taken in six regions of the United States, including South Korea and Switzerland, which are severely affected.

The slowdown in the number of confirmed cases in Switzerland is likely due to the “extraordinary situation” that has been in place since March 16 and severely restricts public life.

A study carried out by the Intervista market research institute on behalf of the ETH and the canton of Zurich shows how much the distance traveled by the Swiss has decreased in recent days.

In all age groups, the daily distance traveled per person has been significantly reduced to less than 10 kilometers on average; people under 25 have adjusted their behavior more. No significant increase is observed even after the first relaxation.

The study is based on movement data from around 2,500 people who are tracked using an app. The numbers were weighted in such a way that they are representative of the Swiss population aged 15 to 79.

Despite this good news: With around 351 confirmed infections per 100,000 inhabitants, Switzerland is severely affected by the coronavirus, and only five countries have more cases per capita. According to the cantons’ figures, there are currently a total of almost 30,000 cases in Switzerland.

The United States is also ahead of Switzerland, with a population of 328 million, which is approximately 38 times larger than that of Switzerland.

The per capita comparison of the infected should also be used with caution. First, because in countries with a smaller population, the per capita ratio increases faster than in larger countries, and second, because many countries have very different testing procedures. Countries like Norway and Switzerland tested much more per capita than the United Kingdom or France. (As of April 30)

The number of deaths is, therefore, more significant for the comparison of a country. But here, too, Switzerland has a relatively high number per inhabitant. To date, around 26 people in Switzerland have died of Covid-19 lung disease per 100,000 inhabitants.

However, other countries are more affected. Belgium, with a population of 11 million similar to Switzerland, has more than triple deaths per capita and is ahead of Spain or Italy. Belgium also counts deaths in nursing homes, while other countries only consider deaths in hospitals.

In the management report of the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG) (as of April 29), confirmed cases in Switzerland, hospitalized and deceased are shown by age and sex. Of those who tested positive, 54 percent are female and 46 percent male. In the age group of 80 years or more, there is the majority of cases for every 100,000 inhabitants.

There is information about more than 3600 people about their hospitalization. More men than women are hospitalized in all age groups, 61 percent of those hospitalized are men. The median age is 72 years. Complete data is available for 3,223 hospitalized people, 87 percent of whom had at least one prior medical condition, the most common being high blood pressure, cardiovascular disease, and diabetes.

Broken down by cantons, it can be seen that it is no longer Ticino as at the beginning, but the canton of Geneva the most affected by the coronavirus. According to the cantons’ figures, almost 1,000 people for every 100,000 inhabitants are already infected with the virus there.

Many European countries have introduced restrictive measures in recent weeks. The following map shows the Summary of the situation in Europe:

Red-colored countries have imposed a national curfew, as Italy did on March 9.

Spain has the highest number of infected people in Europe, followed by Italy, France and the United Kingdom.

The countries with the highest number of cases in Europe also have a high proportion of patients who have died; more than 20,000 people have died of Covid-19 in Spain, France and Italy. In Germany, with a comparable number of confirmed cases, there are currently only more than 6,800 deaths.

European mortality data shows the severity of the Covid 19 pandemic compared to an influenza outbreak. The Euromomo network collects data from various European countries on mortality.

In England, the number of deaths deviates more than the statistically expected value, and the outbreak far exceeds that of the flu. Also in Spain, Italy, Belgium or the Netherlands, the values ​​are higher than with a flu wave. In Ireland, Finland or Denmark, however, there are no signs of over-mortality.

According to figures from the Federal Statistical Office, there is currently no significant over-mortality in Germany.

Statisticians report that the 2020 flu wave has ended since mid-March, and therefore the number of daily deaths should actually decrease as in previous years. However, since it is slightly increasing, it is obvious that the comparatively high current values ​​are related to the crown pandemic.

In the United States, the number of confirmed infections continues to rise sharply, the total number is higher than anywhere else. Since March 26, more cases have been counted in the United States than in China and Italy, and now the one million confirmed cases have been exceeded.

This development is particularly concerning because the spread of the virus in the United States can only slow down slowly. Growth is slower than in other countries.

The development in the number of deaths in the United States also gives little hope: growth continues to be stronger than in France, Italy or Spain.

The largest focus of virus in the United States is in New York. In the metropolis alone, around 174,000 people have already tested positive for the coronavirus (as of May 2). Several thousand other cases are also being reported in other major cities today.

How the virus spreads in the United States

The number of confirmed cases by district is shown over time. For about 7,300 cases, only the member state is known, but not the county.

Source of data and inspiration: New York Times

Washington state is also severely affected. According to The Guardian, the large number of people infected there may also be due to the fact that many tests were done from the beginning, because the first case in the United States was known in Washington state.

Since the end of March, there have been more cases outside of China than in the country of origin of the pandemic. Furthermore, a large number of patients have recovered in all provinces. Individual provinces like Hunan and Anhui have managed to survive that almost all who suffer. Of around 1,000 patients each, only four died in Hunan and six in Anhui.

Almost all the patients have recovered in many provinces.

Number of coronavirus cases in different provinces of China, by patient status *

Most of the cases in China have occurred in Hubei province, from where the pandemic started. After the disease broke out, the Chinese government initially sealed off his hometown in Wuhan, and large parts of Hubei province soon followed. Wuhan quickly established temporary hospitals. At the same time, the production of masks and other necessary products increased because the outbreak occurred around the Chinese New Year. Outside of Hubei, the authorities also restricted the population’s freedom of movement.

In Hubei, no one is reported as sick anymore.

Confirmed coronavirus cases in Hubei province, by patient status (in thousands)

First Beijing seals Wuhan, and within hours the measures extend to large parts of Hubei.

2nd Completion of the second emergency hospital in Wuhan.

3rd The numbering of the cases is changed in Hubei.

4th The number of people who are currently sick is beginning to decrease.

5 5 Hubei facilitates measurements outside of Wuhan.

6 6 Authorities correct the number of deaths in Wuhan in 1290.

On March 14, the Hubei authorities relaxed the measures outside Wuhan. Only the city of origin is still considered a high risk area. Other provinces have also eased their quarantine in recent days. Around 63,600 patients have currently recovered and around 4,500 people have died in Hubei, and no further infected people have been reported. However, authorities abruptly corrected the number of deaths on April 17; This approach raises questions.

China now faces two challenges: First, the country has to start the economy all over again without triggering a new outbreak. On the other hand, there is now a danger that travelers from abroad will bring the disease again.

The corona virus is spreading globally. The pandemic has affected more than 189 countries. Of the nearly 3.5 million people whose infection with the virus has been confirmed, about a million are already cured, which is about 32 percent (as of May 3). The number of people who are currently ill has increased considerably since the beginning of March.

The global number of confirmed infections continues to rise

Number of confirmed coronavirus cases worldwide (in millions)

First Between February 12 and 18, not only confirmed cases were counted by tests but also those of clinical diagnoses in Hubei province.

The number of deaths is the most accurate when it comes to showing the progression of the epidemic. In contrast to the confirmed number of cases, where there are large uncertainties, such as different counting methods and high or low test intensity, the number of deaths is generally reliable, even if there may be differences in the method of recording.

To date there have been more than 245,000 deaths worldwide. The United States, France, Great Britain, Spain and Italy have the absolute majority of Covid 19 deceased. The following graph shows how the daily number of deceased develops. We calculate the average of the last seven days for each day.

Which countries have the peak of the first wave of infections behind them?

Daily number of coronavirus deaths, moving average in the last 7 days, countries ranked by total number of deaths

The graph shows that the daily number of deaths is decreasing in many countries, including Switzerland. If you look at those 30 countries with the highest number of deaths in the crown, more than two-thirds have exceeded the peak so far. However, some countries still have more and more deaths every day. These include, for example, Brazil, Canada, or Russia.

The development of the pandemic can be divided into different phases: the virus first appeared in the Chinese province of Hubei, then spread throughout the country and in other countries in the region. However, the number of confirmed cases in China has stabilized in the past month, and most patients have recovered. The virus has now reached Europe and other continents and is spreading more and more.

Whether or not a country copes with the coronavirus also depends on the level of preparedness for a pandemic. A large-scale study examining 195 countries in detail concludes that richer countries tend to respond better to an outbreak.

But even the United States, the country best prepared for a pandemic, only has 83.5 points and could therefore improve. Switzerland reached 13th place with two thirds of the possible points, and many countries in Africa and the Middle East are particularly poorly prepared. Venezuela, where there has been a bad economic and supply crisis since 2013, is in a bad position.

Richer countries are better prepared for epidemics than poorer ones.

Index value (0-100) for pandemic and epidemic preparedness level

North Korea is also in an unfortunate situation. If the virus comes from one of the two heavily affected neighboring countries, China and South Korea, the population is at risk of disaster. Many North Koreans are malnourished and therefore weakened, while the country’s health system is on the ground.

However, the regime in North Korea continues to assert that there is not a single case of the coronavirus in the country. However, more than 2,000 people are in quarantine. The government is using the crisis period to conduct various missile tests.

A story by Nikolai Thelitz, Alexandra Kohler, Barnaby Skinner, Jonas Oesch, Balz Rittmeyer, Joana Kelén, Anja Lemcke, Julia Monn, Christian Kleeb, Dominik Batz, and Kaspar Manz.

Note: To learn about the dangers associated with coronavirus and current measures in Switzerland, visit the information website of the Federal Office of Public Health (BAG). For more information, visit the website of the World Health Organization (WHO). The NZZ has compiled all articles on the corona virus here. Everything about symptoms and tips for everyday life can be found here.

Methodological note: This article is continually updated. We have the canton numbers provided by the Canton of Zurich Statistical Office at Github, and the numbers from Johns Hopkins University (JHU). For international comparisons, we also use the JHU figures for Switzerland to optimize comparability. JHU researchers collect the numbers from various sources and confirm them from official agencies (explained in detail here). All numbers refer only to confirmed Corona cases in the respective countries. It can be assumed that the amount of effective crown infected is greater everywhere. Scientists rely on government agencies to provide accurate information, which is not always guaranteed. Furthermore, different procedures at the national or regional level and a variable frequency of tests can have an impact on the comparability of the number of cases. JHU figures show small gaps in some cases, individual values ​​for mid-March are affected, where figures from the previous day are reported for some countries. Read more about how NZZ uses corona virus data here.