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Tens of thousands of young people have to seek an apprenticeship in the midst of the crown crisis. How big the obstacles will be is the first forecast of the University of Bern. This quantifies the so-called learning gap: how many learnings will be missing soon.
The estimate is based on experiences of past recessions and the forecast of future economic growth. On this basis, between 2,200 and 3,000 fewer teaching contracts are expected to be signed this year than in the previous year. At first, that doesn’t sound like a historical depression. But the loss is even more serious since more than half of the apprenticeships were completed before closing.
Young people should be less demanding this year
Of the more than 30,000 young people who have to seek the outbreak of the crisis, 8 to 12 percent could remain without an apprenticeship. If a new corona virus in Wuhan, far away in China, hadn’t made the leap to humans sometime in late fall 2019, they would have gained an apprenticeship.
The loss of learning could end up being greater, according to Stefan Wolter. The professor at the University of Bern says: “There is no comparable economic recession in the numbers we analyze. The extension is greater this time, the time is worse ». The crisis only erupted in the months when companies decide on their learning range. Therefore, Wolter advises: “This year, young people should be a little less selective, especially those who still have nothing.”
A change for the better will take a long time to come. The economy will grow again next year if current forecasts are correct. However, companies will take longer to create more learning. Also in 2021, between 2,000 and 3,000 fewer teaching contracts will be signed.
There are gaps not only in the learning market. Jobs may also be in short supply for young people who are completing their apprenticeship or studies. On Jobcloud, which runs the job portal jobs.ch, the number of jobs advertised has plummeted since mid-March. The decrease is 30 percent in German-speaking Switzerland and up to 40 percent in western Switzerland. Vacancies directed at candidates without work experience are even more affected.
At Talendo, a platform aimed at young professionals with a university degree, the number of traffic has doubled. This is an indication that there is some nervousness among students, says managing director Tim Ruffner. But there is no reason for this: the number of internship positions, particularly offered by large companies on their platform, is stable. “The same applies to entry points,” says Ruffner. At least for the highly rated, the negative trend is not confirmed.
“Wages should not be the first criterion”
Daniel Reumiller is President of the Swiss Conference of Heads of Career and Student Guidance. He says that if the job market crashes, young people with no work experience will feel it. He advises flexibility. “Wages should not be the first criterion.” Experience should be gained, if necessary temporarily, in a different industry less affected by the recession. In this way, he could show future employers that he had used the time, perhaps also with his own project.
The crisis has hit young people. “There have already been layoffs,” says Michael Siegenthaler. The labor market expert at ETH Zurich’s KOF Business Research Center relies on statistics on youth unemployment. In March, around 3,000 more young people had to register at regional employment centers than a year ago. This corresponds to a 26 percent increase. These numbers show the image after two weeks of confinement. Youth unemployment is likely to have increased further since then.
These are special times and that affects the job search. Graduate conferences are held online, interviews only on Skype or Zoom. That’s why applied science colleges or universities now offer training to prepare students to apply in crown times.
